AI Stock Memo: CPRI - Capri - RankAlpha

CPRI

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Capri

As of 2026-05-29/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY26 beat and FY27 guide confirm turnaround traction • 2026-05-27

Expected move: +41%

Biggest risk

Revenue still declined in Q4, FY27 revenue growth is only low single digits, and a meaningful part of the margin improvement came from the IEEPA tariff refund accounting; tariffs, inflation, FX, and consumer demand remain execution risks.

Invalidation

Break below $15 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The print showed a return to profitability, improved gross margin, and management confidence that the Michael Kors/Jimmy Choo reset is taking hold; FY27 guidance calls for low-single-digit revenue growth and roughly 40% EPS growth, which supports the turnaround thesis.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$26

p=45%

Bull target

$30

p=30%

Bear target

$15

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

IEEPA tariff refund supports near-term gross margin
Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo reset can extend the recovery if execution holds
The print showed a return to profitability, improved gross margin, and management confidence that the Michael Kors/Jimmy Choo reset is taking hold; FY27 guidance calls for low-single-digit revenue growth and roughly 40% EPS growth, which supports the turnaround thesis.

BearKey bullets

FY27 guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff rate; higher tariffs, inflation, weaker consumer confidence, or FX swings could pressure margins and earnings.
Jimmy Choo remained loss-making at the operating line, indicating the recovery is uneven across brands.
Michael Kors revenue fell 5.5% reported / 8.4% constant currency, showing the core brand still needs a stronger demand inflection.

WatchKey bullets

FY26 beat and FY27 guide confirm turnaround traction

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $26 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +66% / -17%

Vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base +41% · Bear -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $30 (p=30%)Base Target: $26 (p=45%)Bear Target: $15 (p=25%)

Commentary

Overall tone is cautiously positive but not cleanly bullish: the company delivered an EPS beat, margin improvement, and upbeat FY27 guidance, yet revenue was still down and the guidance itself was only for low-single-digit growth. Post-release reaction was mixed/volatile, with Reuters reporting an initial roughly 4% decline on the revenue/guidance read-through and later coverage noting an intraday rebound. Analyst reaction also appears mixed rather than euphoric, with target trims tied to execution and tariff risk. Coverage is medium and social context is not available, so confidence should remain moderate rather than high.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

IEEPA tariff refund supports near-term gross margin
Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo reset can extend the recovery if execution holds

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=25% prob

Price $18 as of 2026-07-10

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 17%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base +41% · Bear -17%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.24

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-27
FY26 beat and FY27 guide confirm turnaround traction
Capri returned to profitability in Q4, posted adjusted EPS of $0.22, expanded gross margin to 64.8%, and guided FY27 to about $3.525B of revenue and $2.15 EPS while saying the Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo reset is gaining traction [#8-K-2026-05-27].
Prob 78.00% • Move 6.50% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

IEEPA tariff refund supports near-term gross margin
2026-06-15
The company recorded a $65M receivable for IEEPA tariff refunds, with $40M already recognized as a reduction to FY26 COGS; this lifts reported margins but depends on the CBP refund process and is not recurring [#8-K-2026-05-27].
Prob 68% • Move 2% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo reset can extend the recovery if execution holds
2026-12-31
Management said the strategic initiatives are showing early validation and reiterated longer-term goals of $4B Michael Kors revenue and $800M Jimmy Choo revenue, making brand execution and product/consumer engagement the key long-duration swing factor [#8-K-2026-05-27].
Prob 52% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

FY27 guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff rate; higher tariffs, inflation, weaker consumer confidence, or FX swings could pressure margins and earnings.
Jimmy Choo remained loss-making at the operating line, indicating the recovery is uneven across brands.
Michael Kors revenue fell 5.5% reported / 8.4% constant currency, showing the core brand still needs a stronger demand inflection.
Q4 revenue still declined 3.7% reported and 7.0% constant currency, so the turnaround is not yet fully reflected in top-line growth.
The $65M IEEPA tariff refund is supportive but not recurring, and the timing/collectability of the CBP refund process is still uncertain.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
UAA	Closer operating read-through on brand rebuild, promotional discipline, and margin recovery in branded apparel; more directly comparable than broad retail names for turnaround execution.
FIGS	Branded apparel consumer name that is useful for gauging discretionary demand and margin leverage, though it is a looser style/category peer than Capri.
PTON	A loose consumer turnaround comp where investors focus on demand stabilization, profitability, and whether a brand reset can sustain improved sentiment.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-29