CNX

AI Memo

CNX Resources

As of 2026-10-11/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-10-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

October 29 third-quarter results • 2026-10-29

Base target: $35 / p=1% prob

Biggest risk

Second-quarter production fell year over year, while the free-cash-flow outlook partly relies on expected asset-sale and tax-credit proceeds. Weaker volumes, pricing or proceeds could undermine guidance.

Invalidation

Break below $27 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Delivery of maintained production and cash-flow guidance, together with favorable realized gas pricing, could support per-share value. The deterministic prior is positive, but the October 29 release is needed to test that view.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-10-11

Base target

$35

p=1%

Bull target

$40

p=0%

Bear target

$27

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

2027 gas hedges shape commodity exposure
Delivery of maintained production and cash-flow guidance, together with favorable realized gas pricing, could support per-share value.
The deterministic prior is positive, but the October 29 release is needed to test that view.

BearKey bullets

Approximately $525 million of guided free cash flow includes expected asset-sale and tax-credit proceeds that may not arrive as forecast.
[#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Full-year production or adjusted EBITDAX may miss the guidance maintained in July.

WatchKey bullets

October 29 third-quarter results

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $35 (p=1%)

Target spread vs base: +14% / -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $40 (p=0%)Base Target: $35 (p=1%)Bear Target: $27 (p=0%)

Commentary

Recent packet headlines are sparse and partly concern other issuers, so news tone is indeterminate. The October 5 document announces an upcoming release, not third-quarter results; no post-print price reaction or analyst revisions exist in the supplied evidence. Social, options, short-interest and employee metrics are unavailable; the zero placeholders in sentiment are not measured readings. Maintain a monitoring stance despite the positive deterministic prior.

As of 2026-10-11 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

2027 gas hedges shape commodity exposure

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=0% prob

Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-10-29
October 29 third-quarter results
CNX scheduled its third-quarter results and Q&A call for October 29. Production, realized pricing and any change to full-year guidance will be the decision-relevant disclosures; results have not yet been reported. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-10-05]
Prob 90.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 65.00%
EVENT2026-12-31
Delivery of 2026 production and cash-flow guidance
The July earnings supplement maintained 2026 guidance of 605–620 Bcfe production, $1.265–$1.315 billion adjusted EBITDAX and about $525 million free cash flow. Second-quarter production was 151.5 Bcfe versus 167.6 Bcfe a year earlier. The cash-flow forecast includes expected asset-sale and tax-credit proceeds, making delivery important to verify. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] SEC earnings supplement
Prob 60.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

2027 gas hedges shape commodity exposure
2027-12-31
CNX listed 400.4 Bcf of 2027 natural-gas volumes hedged as of July 15, 2026. These positions can cushion weaker gas prices but constrain participation if prices rise; subsequent hedge changes are unverified. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] SEC earnings supplement
Prob 65% • Move 3% • Priced-in 60%

Risks

Approximately $525 million of guided free cash flow includes expected asset-sale and tax-credit proceeds that may not arrive as forecast. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Full-year production or adjusted EBITDAX may miss the guidance maintained in July. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Gas-price and regional-basis changes can affect realized pricing; the July hedge snapshot may no longer reflect current positions. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
The third-quarter result and any updated guidance remain unavailable ahead of October 29. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-10-05]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AR	Appalachian gas and liquids comparison from the prior baseline, with product-mix differences limiting direct valuation comparison.
EQT	Appalachian gas benchmark from the prior baseline, but its larger scale and midstream footprint limit direct comparability.
RRC	Appalachian natural-gas operating comparison from the prior baseline; compare production, regional realizations and hedging rather than treating it as a direct valuation multiple.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-10-11

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Symbol

Summary

Appalachian gas and liquids comparison from the prior baseline, with product-mix differences limiting direct valuation comparison.

EQT

Appalachian gas benchmark from the prior baseline, but its larger scale and midstream footprint limit direct comparability.

RRC

Appalachian natural-gas operating comparison from the prior baseline; compare production, regional realizations and hedging rather than treating it as a direct valuation multiple.