CNX

Rating neutralAI Memo

CNX Resources

As of 2026-05-03/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 print showed strong realized pricing, profit rebound, and free cash flow generation [#8-K-2026-04-30] • 2026-05-30

Expected move: +6%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that the updated 2026 outlook already showed lower EBITDAX and FCF despite a strong Q1 tape, implying sensitivity to strip changes and limited operating leverage from here. Hedge losses versus spot and still-elevated absolute debt can limit upside if gas weakens or basis deteriorates.

Invalidation

Break below $31 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull read is that CNX converted a stronger gas backdrop into a sharp earnings rebound, $139M of Q1 free cash flow, and lower net debt while keeping production and capital plans stable. If realized gas prices remain supportive, the market could look through the modest guidance trim and reward the company for cash generation durability.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-03

Base target

$38

p=45%

Bull target

$43

p=30%

Bear target

$31

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Updated 2026 outlook trimmed FCF and EBITDAX on lower open-volume gas price assumptions [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Large hedge book and stable production plan support cash-flow resilience if gas stays constructive [#8-K-2026-04-30]
The post-earnings bull read is that CNX converted a stronger gas backdrop into a sharp earnings rebound, $139M of Q1 free cash flow, and lower net debt while keeping production and capital plans stable.

BearKey bullets

2026 free cash flow guidance was reduced to about $525M from about $550M, showing forward sensitivity to lower open-volume gas price assumptions.
Natural gas basis and realized-price volatility remain material, especially because differentials widened in the updated guidance deck.
Net debt remains about $2.361B, so the equity still carries leverage and commodity-cycle exposure despite sequential improvement.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 print showed strong realized pricing, profit rebound, and free cash flow generation [#8-K-2026-04-30]

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $38 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +20% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base +6% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $43 (p=30%)Base Target: $38 (p=45%)Bear Target: $31 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary evidence is solid because the Q1 update was confirmed through the April 30, 2026 company 8-K and supplemental materials, but the T+3 setup still looks like a monitoring run rather than a high-conviction thesis change. Checked secondary sources pointed to an earnings beat versus consensus, yet immediate market reaction looked mixed to mildly negative and delayed analyst revision data was not robustly available. With recent coverage centered on the earnings event and no verified broad post-print upgrade cycle in hand, sentiment is best treated as cautiously balanced rather than decisively bullish.

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Updated 2026 outlook trimmed FCF and EBITDAX on lower open-volume gas price assumptions [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Large hedge book and stable production plan support cash-flow resilience if gas stays constructive [#8-K-2026-04-30]

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$43 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$38 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=25% prob

Price $36 as of 2026-07-31

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base +6% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-30
Q1 print showed strong realized pricing, profit rebound, and free cash flow generation [#8-K-2026-04-30]
CNX posted Q1 2026 revenue of $786.7M, net income of $348.1M, diluted EPS of $2.18, and free cash flow of $139M, while net debt improved to about $2.361B. The quarter showed stronger operating cash generation and margins than the prior-year loss backdrop, but investors are now testing whether those gains are durable rather than one-off commodity-driven strength.
Prob 75.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Updated 2026 outlook trimmed FCF and EBITDAX on lower open-volume gas price assumptions [#8-K-2026-04-30]
2026-06-30
Production and capital spending ranges were held, but CNX lowered 2026 adjusted EBITDAX to $1.265B-$1.315B from $1.310B-$1.360B and reduced expected 2026 free cash flow to about $525M from about $550M as open-volume gas assumptions moved lower. That softer forward setup is the clearest near-term cap on multiple expansion after earnings.
Prob 80% • Move -5% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Large hedge book and stable production plan support cash-flow resilience if gas stays constructive [#8-K-2026-04-30]
2026-12-31
CNX kept 2026 production guidance at 605-620 Bcfe and disclosed 459.6 Bcf hedged for 2026 with fully covered volumes priced around $2.74/Mcf, plus 400.3 Bcf hedged for 2027 around $3.31/Mcf. The hedge book limits upside in a strong gas tape but improves downside protection and supports a steadier deleveraging/per-share cash flow story.
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

2026 free cash flow guidance was reduced to about $525M from about $550M, showing forward sensitivity to lower open-volume gas price assumptions.
Natural gas basis and realized-price volatility remain material, especially because differentials widened in the updated guidance deck.
Net debt remains about $2.361B, so the equity still carries leverage and commodity-cycle exposure despite sequential improvement.
Post-earnings analyst target and estimate revision visibility was limited in checked sources, which lowers confidence in any strong rerating call.
Projected 2026 hedge mark-to-market in the supplemental materials implied a sizable modeled loss versus the 4/15/2026 strip, which can mute upside if spot prices stay firm.

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-03

AI Stock Memo: CNX - CNX Resources - RankAlpha