AI Stock Memo: CNM - Core Main - RankAlpha

CNM

Rating buyAI Memo

Core Main

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst revisions / target upgrades • 2026-04-16

Expected move: +28%

Biggest risk

Bear thesis: a slowdown in public capex or persistent commodity/pricing pressures that compress volumes and margins, combined with execution risk on integrations leading to multiple compression.

Invalidation

Break below $40 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull thesis: durable acceleration in municipal and infrastructure spending, improving mix and margin expansion, and successful tuck-in M&A that lifts revenue per share and justifies a premium multiple.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$63

p=60%

Bull target

$75

p=20%

Bear target

$40

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings and FY2026 guidance update
Sustained infrastructure spending cycle
Bull thesis: durable acceleration in municipal and infrastructure spending, improving mix and margin expansion, and successful tuck-in M&A that lifts revenue per share and justifies a premium multiple.

BearKey bullets

Customer concentration and adverse municipal budget changes
Execution risk from acquisitions or integration
Rising commodity/materials or logistics costs compressing margins

WatchKey bullets

Analyst revisions / target upgrades

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $63 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +52% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +52% · Base +28% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $75 (p=20%)Base Target: $63 (p=60%)Bear Target: $40 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: median analyst targets sit in the low-to-mid $60s while highs extend into the mid-$60s/70s and lows near $40, yielding a slightly positive but mixed backdrop [#SERP-3][#SERP-1]. Near-term focus is on upcoming quarterly results and guidance, while longer-term sentiment depends on the pace of municipal capex recovery and margin trajectory [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear thesis: a slowdown in public capex or persistent commodity/pricing pressures that compress volumes and margins, combined with execution risk on integrations leading to multiple compression.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings and FY2026 guidance update
Sustained infrastructure spending cycle

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$61.18

Range (USD)

$40.00 - $75.00

Count

Query: Core & Main Inc Class A Common (CNM) analyst consensus price target high low average

Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Sector Avg. 100 High. Rapports de recherche: CNM. Afficher davantage. Raising target price to $63.00. Core & Main Inc has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target ...
Extracted: $63.00Open source
Core & Main Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:CNM
Search result #2
Core & Main Inc has a consensus price target of $53.69 based on the ratings of 16 analysts. The high is $68 issued by Loop Capital on July 28, 2025. The low ...
Extracted: $53.69, $68.00Open source
CNM | Core & Main Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $75.00. Median, $63.00. Low, $40.00. Average, $61.27. Current Price, $56.45. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. CNM will report 2026 earnings ...
Extracted: $75.00, $63.00, $40.00, $61.27, $56.45Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Core & Main (CNM)
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $40.00 to a high of $67.00. The average price target represents an increase of 4.43% from the last closing price of $56.63.
Extracted: $40.00, $67.00, $56.63Open source
CORE & MAIN INC-CLASS A (CNM) Stock Analyst Ratings - Chartmill
Search result #5
19 analysts have analysed CNM and the average price target is 61.53 USD. This implies a price increase of 9.32% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $61.53Open source
Core & Main (CNM) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #6
The highest price target for CNM is $68.00, while the lowest price target for CNM is $50.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 7.06% ...
Extracted: $68.00, $50.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$75 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$63 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=20% prob

Price $49 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 19%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +52% · Base +28% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-16
Analyst revisions / target upgrades
Periodic analyst checks and consensus revisions (notable median/high spread) can re-rate the name; date set to a conservative near-term window end in absence of a public schedule [#SERP-1][#SERP-3].
Prob 50.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings and FY2026 guidance update
2026-04-16
Quarterly results and management guidance will reveal volume trends and margin trajectory; market attention on water/wastewater and municipal spending. Date estimated due to no disclosed IR/SEC date [#SERP-3].
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained infrastructure spending cycle
2027-01-16
Multi-year recovery in public/infrastructure capex would lift volumes and pricing power for distribution players; outcome tied to municipal budgets and federal funding pace [#SERP-2].
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Customer concentration and adverse municipal budget changes
Execution risk from acquisitions or integration
Rising commodity/materials or logistics costs compressing margins
Slower-than-expected municipal/infrastructure spending

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FAST	Fastenal — large industrial/construction distributor with similar end-market exposure; useful for distribution-scale comparisons.
GWW	W.W. Grainger — broad industrial distributor providing a contrast on scale, product mix, and margin structure.
FERG	Ferguson plc — plumbing and HVAC distributor with overlapping municipal/contractor end markets; helpful for channel and market-share context.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Core & Main Inc Class A Common (CNM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16