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CNM

Core MainA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Municipal and large-project strength, modest Q2 sales and EBITDA growth, and reaffirmed guidance support a constructive view if second-half execution holds. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09] Company earnings release
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Capital deployed to repurchases, acquisitions and greenfields must produce returns while the company manages $2.166 billion of net debt reported at August 2, 2026. Company earnings release
Momentum
50
Value
65
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.00 · Bull $51.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-10-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $54.54
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d +8.2
Value65 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital deployed to repurchases, acquisitions and greenfields must produce returns while the company manages $2.166 billion of net debt reported at August 2, 2026. Company earnings release
  • • Gross-margin pressure or higher distribution costs could impede the reaffirmed 12.2%–12.4% fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA-margin outlook. Company earnings release
  • • Flat storm-drainage sales, acquisition-supported pipes/valves/fittings sales, and a slight Q2 gross-margin decline leave organic growth and margin delivery uncertain.

Catalyst clock

2027-01-31

Fiscal 2026 outlook delivery

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
50
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+10.4
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-18.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 50.3 / Value 65.1 / Sentiment 57.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8B
Beta
0.98
Shares Out
184.19M
P/E (TTM)
24.3
P/S (TTM)
1.39
P/FCF (TTM)
18.83
Rev YoY
-0.1%
EPS YoY
+9.4%
Gross Margin
+24.7%
Op Margin
+9.6%
Net Debt
$2.22B
Current Ratio
2.31
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data