CNH

Rating neutralAI Memo

CNH Industrial

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results reaffirmed FY26 guidance • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +24%

Biggest risk

Q1 profitability was weak, North American agriculture demand remained historically low, Brazil and trade conditions were still difficult, and industrial free cash flow absorption was heavy. If the cycle stays soft or tariffs/costs worsen, earnings and sentiment could reset lower again.

Invalidation

Break below $9 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

CNH is priced against a weak near-term backdrop, but Q1 showed management discipline, flat revenue, and guidance reaffirmation. If the current agriculture trough is indeed the low point, any improvement in farm demand, pricing, or construction volumes could drive operating leverage.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$14

p=50%

Bull target

$16

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Agriculture-cycle recovery could matter if demand normalizes
Construction margin repair remains a later-cycle opportunity
CNH is priced against a weak near-term backdrop, but Q1 showed management discipline, flat revenue, and guidance reaffirmation.

BearKey bullets

Complex trade conditions and ongoing Brazil challenges can pressure shipments, margins, and confidence.
Construction adjusted EBIT remained negative, so recovery is not yet broad-based across the portfolio.
Historically low North American agricultural equipment demand could persist longer than expected.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 results reaffirmed FY26 guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +44% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +44% · Base +24% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $16 (p=20%)Base Target: $14 (p=50%)Bear Target: $9 (p=30%)

Commentary

High-coverage industrial name with solid primary-source evidence, but the forward view is still a monitoring setup rather than a strong thesis. The April 30 Q1 release was mixed: revenue was flat and free cash flow absorption was heavy, yet management reaffirmed FY26 guidance and described the industry as moving through the trough of the agriculture cycle. Social coverage is absent in the packet, and I did not find a reliable post-print analyst revision or price-reaction datapoint to upgrade conviction, so the stance stays cautious.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Agriculture-cycle recovery could matter if demand normalizes
Construction margin repair remains a later-cycle opportunity

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=30% prob

Price $11 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 20%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +44% · Base +24% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Q1 2026 results reaffirmed FY26 guidance
CNH reported Q1 2026 consolidated revenues of $3.83 billion (flat year over year), net income of $10 million, and industrial free cash flow absorption of $589 million, but management reaffirmed full-year guidance and said the industry is moving through the lowest period of the current agriculture cycle. [#8-K-2026-04-30][#10-Q-2026-04-30]
Prob 90.00% • Move 2.00% • Priced-in 88.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Agriculture-cycle recovery could matter if demand normalizes
2026-09-30
The Q1 release framed North American agricultural equipment demand as historically low, but also emphasized disciplined production, steady channel inventories, and positive price/product cost performance. If global trade conditions and farm demand improve, CNH has operating leverage into a recovery phase. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 45%
Construction margin repair remains a later-cycle opportunity
2026-12-31
Construction adjusted EBIT was still negative in Q1 2026, so margin recovery depends on better pricing, volume, and productivity while tariff and cost pressures ease. The setup is constructive over time, but the near-term path is uneven. [#10-Q-2026-04-30]
Prob 55% • Move 5% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Complex trade conditions and ongoing Brazil challenges can pressure shipments, margins, and confidence.
Construction adjusted EBIT remained negative, so recovery is not yet broad-based across the portfolio.
Historically low North American agricultural equipment demand could persist longer than expected.
Industrial free cash flow absorption was large in Q1, which increases execution risk if inventories or working capital worsen.
Q1 2026 adjusted EBIT margin of industrial activities was still negative, showing profitability remains soft.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DE	Closest operating peer for agriculture and construction equipment; its dealer-channel and farm-income signals are the best read-through on whether the equipment trough is stabilizing.
AGCO	Pureer agriculture-cycle comparator; useful for gauging farmer demand, tractor/combine ordering, and inventory normalization.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: CNH - CNH Industrial - RankAlpha