AI Stock Memo: CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce - RankAlpha

CM

Rating buyAI Memo

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2026 earnings release • 2026-12-03

Expected move: -7%

Biggest risk

Significant margin compression or rising credit losses compress multiples below current levels and pressure dividends and valuation.

Invalidation

Break below $92 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained NIM expansion, contained provisions, and clearer capital returns drive multiple expansion toward the upper analyst range (bull target).

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$99

p=60%

Bull target

$138

p=20%

Bear target

$92

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly operating results / NIM sensitivity
Capital return / normalization of credit cycle
Sustained NIM expansion, contained provisions, and clearer capital returns drive multiple expansion toward the upper analyst range (bull target).

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory or capital actions impacting returns
Net interest margin compression from deposit repricing or higher funding costs
Worsening Canadian housing/consumer credit losses

WatchKey bullets

FY2026 earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $99 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +30% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +30% · Base -7% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $138 (p=20%)Base Target: $99 (p=60%)Bear Target: $92 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautiously constructive: median analyst targets sit above the anchor, implying modest base-case upside, while coverage shows dispersion driven by differing views on NIM and capital returns [#SERP-1][#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained NIM expansion, contained provisions, and clearer capital returns drive multiple expansion toward the upper analyst range (bull target).

Bear Case

Significant margin compression or rising credit losses compress multiples below current levels and pressure dividends and valuation.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly operating results / NIM sensitivity
Capital return / normalization of credit cycle

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$99.06

Range (USD)

$92.38 - $138.00

Count

Query: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common (CM) analyst consensus price target high low average

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) Stock Forecast & Price ...
Search result #1
According to the 8 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the average price target is $107.50. The highest price target ...
Extracted: $107.50Open source
Consensus Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce - MarketScreener
Search result #2
Last Close Price. 126.33CAD. Average target price. 125.38CAD. Spread / Average Target. -0.75%. High Price Target. 138.00CAD. Spread / Highest target. +9.24%.
Open source
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #3
Raising target price to $103.00. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $103.000000; an Industry Subrating of ...
Extracted: $103.00Open source
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Research & Ratings | CM
Search result #4
ConsensusBuyBuy. Stock Price Target. High, $95.12. Low, $94.00. Average, $94.56. Current Price, $92.38. CM will report FY 2026 earnings on 12/03/2026. Yearly ...
Extracted: $95.12, $94.00, $94.56, $92.38Open source
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) Analyst Research ...
Search result #5
Latest Analyst Research & Price Targets for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) ... Current Target Price. High Target Price. Mean Target Price. Low Target ...
Open source
CM.TO Analyst Ratings for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ...
Search result #6
Above the chart, you will find the 12-Month High, Mean, and Low Target Prices from analysts who provided ratings. ... The table shows the mean historical analyst ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$138 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$99 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$92 / p=20% prob

Price $106 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +30% · Base -7% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-03
FY2026 earnings release
Company FY2026 results are a material event for guidance, provisions, and capital commentary; market reaction typically concentrates around the reported date [#SERP-4].
Prob 70.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly operating results / NIM sensitivity
2026-04-30
Quarterly results and NIM/provision trends will drive near-term revisions and volatility; consensus pages and recent analyst notes highlight this focus [#SERP-1][#SERP-3].
Prob 40% • Move 6% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital return / normalization of credit cycle
2027-01-30
Improved credit metrics and clearer capital-return policy over 12+ months could re-rate the stock if payout ratios and NIM stabilize [#SERP-1].
Prob 50% • Move 18% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Adverse regulatory or capital actions impacting returns
Net interest margin compression from deposit repricing or higher funding costs
Worsening Canadian housing/consumer credit losses

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BNS	Bank of Nova Scotia — large international footprint; useful comparator for geographic credit and trading exposure versus CM's domestic tilt.
RY	Royal Bank of Canada — market-share leader with stable fee income and conservative capital management; benchmark for relative resilience.
TD	Toronto-Dominion Bank — U.S.-heavy retail franchise; barometer for retail deposit and consumer-credit trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common (CM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30