CHCO

Rating neutralAI Memo

City

As of 2026-04-21/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

April 30 dividend payment with early read-through on capital return follow-through • 2026-04-30

Expected move: -1%

Biggest risk

The thesis is still mostly a monitoring view. Management explicitly disclosed that Q4 investment income was hit by matured swaps, and the hoped-for offset from late-quarter loan growth has not yet been confirmed in reported Q1 numbers. In addition, 2025 benefited from a reserve release tied to one upgraded credit, so earnings comps can get harder if credit costs normalize. With the stock already near the packet's median target of $131, upside looks limited unless operating momentum re-accelerates.

Invalidation

Break below $112 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

CHCO enters 2026 with record 2025 earnings, 5.4% loan growth, a still-healthy 3.94% reported net interest margin, low nonperforming assets at 0.32% of loans and OREO, strong regulatory capital, and a newly authorized buyback equal to roughly 7% of shares outstanding. Those facts support a case for steady EPS accretion and downside support from capital return.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-21

Base target

$123

p=50%

Bull target

$138

p=25%

Bear target

$112

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Reserve benefit from a single upgraded credit becomes a tougher comp
Loan growth and buyback execution offset late-2025 NIM pressure
CHCO enters 2026 with record 2025 earnings, 5.4% loan growth, a still-healthy 3.94% reported net interest margin, low nonperforming assets at 0.32% of loans and OREO, strong regulatory capital, and a newly authorized buyback equal to roughly 7% of shares outstanding.

BearKey bullets

Catalyst depth is modest; absent a strong operating print, capital return alone may not rerate the shares materially.
Credit cost normalization could reverse some of the 2025 benefit from the reserve release on an upgraded credit.
Net interest margin remains exposed to asset-yield pressure after late-2025 swap maturities.

WatchKey bullets

April 30 dividend payment with early read-through on capital return follow-through

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $123 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -1% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $138 (p=25%)Base Target: $123 (p=50%)Bear Target: $112 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence supports a cautious, slightly negative monitoring stance rather than a strong directional call. CHCO's 2025 operating backdrop was solid and capital return is meaningful, but the forward hook is narrow: investors still need proof that late-quarter loan growth can offset the lost swap income and that reserve benefits were not overstating earnings quality. With deterministic priors negative across 5d to 120d and valuation already close to the packet's median target, the risk/reward looks balanced to mildly unfavorable in the near term.

As of 2026-04-21 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Reserve benefit from a single upgraded credit becomes a tougher comp
Loan growth and buyback execution offset late-2025 NIM pressure

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$138 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$123 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$112 / p=25% prob

Price $124 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -1% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
April 30 dividend payment with early read-through on capital return follow-through
The March 25, 2026 8-K said the board declared a $0.87 quarterly dividend payable April 30, 2026 and simultaneously authorized repurchases of up to 1,000,000 common shares, with management able to start or pause purchases based on conditions; this should keep attention on near-term capital return execution, although much of the action is already known [#8-K-2026-03-26].
Prob 85.00% • Move 2.00% • Priced-in 75.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Reserve benefit from a single upgraded credit becomes a tougher comp
2026-04-30
In the January 21, 2026 annual earnings release, management said full-year 2025 included a $1.4 million recovery of credit losses driven primarily by the upgrade of one specific credit; if that one-off reserve release does not repeat, near-term reported earnings could look less favorable even with stable credit quality [#IR-2026-01-21].
Prob 60% • Move -3% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Loan growth and buyback execution offset late-2025 NIM pressure
2026-09-30
The January 21, 2026 annual earnings release noted that Q4 investment income was hurt by the maturity of $150 million of swap agreements, but management expected late-quarter loan growth to essentially offset that decline in Q1 2026. The same release showed 2025 loans up 5.4%, deposits up 3.0%, tangible equity ratio up to 9.9%, and parent cash of $149 million; combined with the new 1,000,000-share repurchase authorization, sustained execution could support EPS and valuation, but visibility remains limited until actual quarter-to-date results are reported [#IR-2026-01-21] [#8-K-2026-03-26].
Prob 55% • Move 5% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Catalyst depth is modest; absent a strong operating print, capital return alone may not rerate the shares materially.
Credit cost normalization could reverse some of the 2025 benefit from the reserve release on an upgraded credit.
Net interest margin remains exposed to asset-yield pressure after late-2025 swap maturities.
Regional bank sentiment can weaken quickly if deposit competition or rate expectations worsen.
The new repurchase authorization has no time limit, so actual pace and impact may be slower than investors expect.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CCB	Small-cap bank peer from the packet with a similar market capitalization; useful as a direct community/regional bank comparison rather than a broad financials comp.
FCF	Regional bank peer candidate from the packet with similar size; relevant for comparing loan/deposit growth, credit costs, and capital return discipline.
NIC	Bank peer candidate from the packet with close market cap; a better operating comparison for CHCO than large diversified financials.
NWBI	Similarly sized bank peer from the packet; appropriate for benchmarking funding mix, NIM resilience, and shareholder payout posture.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-21

AI Stock Memo: CHCO - City - RankAlpha