CCSI

AI Memo

Consensus Cloud Solutions

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 print reaffirmed FY2026 and added Q2 guidance • 2026-05-07

Expected move: +6%

Biggest risk

Revenue growth was still only 1.5% overall, SoHo revenue fell 9.5%, and the company remains dependent on a mix shift away from legacy runoff. If corporate growth slows or the channel mix stops improving, earnings quality can look more like maintenance than acceleration. [#8-K-2026-05-07]

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q1 2026 results were solid enough to reaffirm full-year guidance and add Q2 guidance, with corporate-channel revenue up 8.2%, adjusted EBITDA margin at 54.1%, and free cash flow up to $38.5M. Share repurchases and lower debt expense also supported EPS expansion. [#8-K-2026-05-07]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$36

p=52%

Bull target

$43

p=28%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Sustained corporate-channel growth versus SoHo decline remains the main rerating path
Q1 2026 results were solid enough to reaffirm full-year guidance and add Q2 guidance, with corporate-channel revenue up 8.2%, adjusted EBITDA margin at 54.1%, and free cash flow up to $38.5M.
Share repurchases and lower debt expense also supported EPS expansion.

BearKey bullets

SoHo revenue decline could continue to offset corporate-channel gains if the mix shift loses momentum.
The debt repurchase and share repurchase programs help capital return optics, but execution or timing slippage would reduce their EPS and sentiment lift.
Top-line growth remains modest, so guidance depends on continued cost discipline, margin stability, and buyback support rather than a broad revenue inflection.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 print reaffirmed FY2026 and added Q2 guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $36 (p=52%)

Bull/Bear spread: +24% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +6% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $43 (p=28%)Base Target: $36 (p=52%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is cautiously constructive: Q1 2026 revenue, EPS, EBITDA, and free cash flow all improved, and management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance while issuing Q2 guidance. The setup stays monitoring-style rather than high conviction because revenue growth is still only 1.5%, SoHo remains a drag, coverage is low, and the packet does not include a post-print price reaction or analyst revision signal.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Sustained corporate-channel growth versus SoHo decline remains the main rerating path

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$43 / p=28% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=52% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $34 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +6% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
Q1 2026 print reaffirmed FY2026 and added Q2 guidance
The May 7 earnings release/8-K showed Q1 revenue of $88.5M, net income of $24.7M, adjusted EBITDA of $47.9M, and free cash flow of $38.5M, while management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance and issued Q2 2026 guidance. The near-term setup is whether the company can keep translating corporate-channel growth into stable top-line expansion. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
Prob 68.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 62.00%
EVENT2026-11-09
Capital allocation execution stays a timed checkpoint through late 2026
Consensus ended Q1 with $92.3M of cash and disclosed remaining authorization under its $300M debt repurchase program that expires on November 9, 2026. Further repurchases or debt reduction could support EPS and sentiment, but lack of execution would reduce that support. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
Prob 54.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 48.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained corporate-channel growth versus SoHo decline remains the main rerating path
2026-12-31
Management said corporate revenue grew 8.2% year over year, the strongest growth rate since Q4 2022, while SoHo revenue still fell 9.5%. If the mix shift persists, it supports a longer-duration rerating; if it stalls, overall growth can remain muted. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
Prob 56% • Move 11% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

SoHo revenue decline could continue to offset corporate-channel gains if the mix shift loses momentum.
The debt repurchase and share repurchase programs help capital return optics, but execution or timing slippage would reduce their EPS and sentiment lift.
Top-line growth remains modest, so guidance depends on continued cost discipline, margin stability, and buyback support rather than a broad revenue inflection.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
OOMA	Closest operating peer in the packet because it also sells cloud communications services to business customers, though its UCaaS/telephony mix is still meaningfully different from CCSI's digital fax and interoperability focus.
APPS	Adjacent small-cap software/comms reference with similar scale, but it is not a direct operating comp for Consensus Cloud Solutions' fax-centric workflow exposure.
DCBO	Loose enterprise software valuation comp only; useful as a small-cap SaaS reference, not as a direct read-through on CCSI's revenue mix or margin profile.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: CCSI - Consensus Cloud Solutions - RankAlpha