AI Stock Memo: CCK - Crown - RankAlpha

CCK

Rating buyAI Memo

Crown

As of 2026-02-05/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release • 2026-05-06

Expected move: +25%

Biggest risk

Bear case centers on weaker beverage/consumer demand, commodity inflation persisting, and multiple compression from slower-than-expected margin improvement.

Invalidation

Break below $100 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes faster margin recovery from lower metal/freight costs, share gains in beverage closures, and continued buyback/capital allocation that supports EPS expansion.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-05

Base target

$119

p=60%

Bull target

$140

p=20%

Bear target

$100

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release
Analyst target revisions / consensus update
Commodity cost tailwind (aluminum/steel) and margin recovery

BearKey bullets

Demand slowdown in beverage and consumer end-markets
Negative analyst revisions / multiple compression
Supply-chain disruptions or freight-cost spikes

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 112, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-05T13:01:48+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Comparing to analyst consensus: the base_target (119.0) is near the reported analyst median (118.82) and sits between the low (~99.99) and high (147.0) of recent published targets [#SERP-4], [#SERP-3].

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $119 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +47% / +5%

Vs latest close: Bull +47% · Base +25% · Bear +5%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $140 (p=20%)Base Target: $119 (p=60%)Bear Target: $100 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is neutral-to-cautious: recent analyst coverage shows a wide target spread with a median near the base case, indicating mixed conviction [#SERP-4], [#SERP-3]. Commentary sources emphasize margin sensitivity to metal prices and cyclical beverage demand as the primary drivers of upside or downside [#SERP-1]. Short-term tone is event-driven around earnings and any guidance changes [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-02-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes faster margin recovery from lower metal/freight costs, share gains in beverage closures, and continued buyback/capital allocation that supports EPS expansion.

Bear Case

Bear case centers on weaker beverage/consumer demand, commodity inflation persisting, and multiple compression from slower-than-expected margin improvement.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings release
Analyst target revisions / consensus update
Commodity cost tailwind (aluminum/steel) and margin recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-05Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$118.82

Range (USD)

$99.99 - $147.00

Count

Query: Crown Holdings Inc Common (CCK) analyst consensus price target high low average

Crown Holdings (CCK) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $106.00 to a high of $140.00. The average price target represents an increase of 17.35% from the last closing price of $104. ...
Extracted: $106.00, $140.00, $104.00Open source
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
CROWN HOLDINGS INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $109.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Low; a Safety ...
Extracted: $109.00Open source
Crown Holdings Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:CCK
Search result #3
Crown Holdings Inc has a consensus price target of $118.82 based on the ratings of 18 analysts. The high is $140 issued by Loop Capital on July 23, 2025.
Extracted: $118.82, $140.00Open source
Crown Holdings Inc. Analyst Estimates - CCK - MarketWatch
Search result #4
Stock Price Targets. High, $140.00. Median, $120.00. Low, $106.00. Average, $122.43. Current Price, $102.81. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. CCK will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $140.00, $120.00, $106.00, $122.43, $102.81Open source
CCK Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #5
Crown Holdings, Inc. CCK is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. The price of CCK shares has increased $0.35 ...
Open source
Crown Holdings, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
Average target price. 122.43USD. Spread / Average Target. +17.46%. High Price Target. 140.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +34.32%. Low Price Target ... CCK Stock ...
Extracted: $122.43, $140.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$140 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$119 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=20% prob

Price $95 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +47% · Base +25% · Bear +5%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings release
2026-05-06
Upcoming quarterly results and management commentary often drive near-term re-rating; use of MarketWatch/analyst previews suggests consensus focus on 2025 results and guidance changes [#SERP-4].
Prob 75% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%
Analyst target revisions / consensus update
2026-05-06
Periodic analyst coverage updates (consensus median/high/low recently reported) can change sentiment and target dispersion; watch for revisions after results or material guidance changes [#SERP-3], [#SERP-1].
Prob 60% • Move 10% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commodity cost tailwind (aluminum/steel) and margin recovery
2027-02-05
Sustained easing in metal and freight costs could materially lift gross margins and free cash flow over the next year; analysts cite margin sensitivity to commodity trends and industry cyclicality [#SERP-4], [#SERP-6].
Prob 55% • Move 18% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Demand slowdown in beverage and consumer end-markets
Negative analyst revisions / multiple compression
Supply-chain disruptions or freight-cost spikes
Sustained commodity-cost inflation (aluminum/steel) impacting margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SLGN	Silgan Holdings — consumer packaging peer focused on cans and closures; comparable margin drivers and packaging demand cycles.
ATR	AptarGroup — packaging solutions peer with overlap in consumer end-markets and sensitivity to supply-chain/service mix.
OI	O-I Glass — packaging materials peer offering a cyclicality comparison for container demand across beverages and consumer goods.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Crown Holdings Inc Common (CCK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-05