CALM

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

Cal-Maine Foods

As of 2026-05-20/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q3 FY2026 earnings reset after egg-price compression • 2026-05-27

Expected move: +7%

Biggest risk

The latest quarter highlights how quickly revenue and profit can compress when egg prices fall. HPAI depopulations, the March 2026 Maryland outbreak, and the ongoing DOJ antitrust investigation all keep the risk profile elevated.

Invalidation

Break below $60 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

If egg pricing stabilizes and prepared foods continue scaling, the mix shift away from pure shell-egg exposure could support more durable earnings power. The company also ended the quarter with sufficient liquidity per the filing, which helps absorb volatility.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-20

Base target

$80

p=52%

Bull target

$94

p=18%

Bear target

$60

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

HPAI and DOJ scrutiny remain live overhangs
Prepared-foods mix expansion can diversify the earnings base
If egg pricing stabilizes and prepared foods continue scaling, the mix shift away from pure shell-egg exposure could support more durable earnings power.

BearKey bullets

Echo Lake Foods integration and acquisition accounting could pressure near-term margins if the prepared-foods ramp or synergies disappoint.
[#10-Q-2026-04-01]
Egg-price volatility can rapidly compress revenue and earnings; Q3 FY2026 net sales fell 53.0% year over year and net income fell to $51.1 million from $508.2 million.

WatchKey bullets

Q3 FY2026 earnings reset after egg-price compression

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $80 (p=52%)

Bull/Bear spread: +26% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +7% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $94 (p=18%)Base Target: $80 (p=52%)Bear Target: $60 (p=30%)

Commentary

This remains a tentative monitoring view. Primary-source visibility is adequate for the trailing quarter, but forward evidence is limited and the deterministic prior is neutral-to-slightly-negative. The setup is dominated by egg-price volatility, HPAI supply shocks, and the DOJ antitrust CID, while the packet does not include fresh analyst revisions or a clean market-reaction readthrough. Missing revision evidence should not be treated as positive evidence.

As of 2026-05-20 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

HPAI and DOJ scrutiny remain live overhangs
Prepared-foods mix expansion can diversify the earnings base

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$94 / p=18% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$80 / p=52% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=30% prob

Price $75 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +7% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-27
Q3 FY2026 earnings reset after egg-price compression
For the 13 weeks ended February 28, 2026, Cal-Maine reported total net sales of $667.0 million and net income of $51.1 million, versus $1.418 billion and $508.2 million a year earlier, as conventional egg pricing normalized; prepared foods partly offset the decline through Echo Lake Foods. [#10-Q-2026-04-01]
Prob 70.00% • Move -3.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

HPAI and DOJ scrutiny remain live overhangs
2026-08-31
The filing says 17.6 million layer hens and pullets were depopulated due to HPAI through March 30, 2026, including a March 14, 2026 outbreak at the Maryland pullet facility, and it also discloses a DOJ antitrust CID received in March 2025. [#10-Q-2026-04-01]
Prob 40% • Move -5% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Prepared-foods mix expansion can diversify the earnings base
2026-11-30
Prepared-foods sales rose $51.9 million in the quarter, primarily from the Echo Lake Foods acquisition completed in fiscal 2026, giving management a longer-run diversification lever beyond shell eggs, though the evidence is still early and not enough to offset commodity egg volatility by itself. [#10-Q-2026-04-01]
Prob 50% • Move 3% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Echo Lake Foods integration and acquisition accounting could pressure near-term margins if the prepared-foods ramp or synergies disappoint. [#10-Q-2026-04-01]
Egg-price volatility can rapidly compress revenue and earnings; Q3 FY2026 net sales fell 53.0% year over year and net income fell to $51.1 million from $508.2 million. [#10-Q-2026-04-01]
HPAI remains a recurring supply shock; the filing cites 17.6 million layer hens and pullets depopulated through March 30, 2026 and a post-quarter outbreak at the Maryland pullet facility. [#10-Q-2026-04-01]
Ongoing DOJ antitrust/CID scrutiny into egg producers adds legal and regulatory uncertainty. [#10-Q-2026-04-01]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MZTI	Loose consumer-staples comp for pricing/mix and valuation context; not a clean operating peer for egg production or HPAI exposure.
TR	Defensive food/staples peer that can help frame multiple stability, but it has limited overlap with Cal-Maine's commodity egg economics.
FIZZ	Another loose staples comp for consumer-demand and margin-mix context; useful as a sentiment/valuation reference, not an operational match.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-20

AI Stock Memo: CALM - Cal-Maine Foods - RankAlpha