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BZH

AI Memo

Beazer Homes USA

As of 2026-06-09/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Fiscal Q2 2026 print showed softer demand and lower margins • 2026-04-30

Base target: $26 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Demand could stay soft if mortgage rates and affordability pressure remain elevated, while lower margins, weaker orders/backlog, and higher leverage limit room for disappointment.

Invalidation

Break below $19 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Beazer can turn the April quarter’s weak operating print into a second-half recovery if construction costs keep falling, newer-community mix keeps improving, and buybacks amplify per-share value creation. The recent acquisition headlines also keep event-driven upside alive.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-06-09

Base target

$26

p=50%

Bull target

$32

p=30%

Bear target

$19

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Second-half margin recovery levers remain visible
Beazer can turn the April quarter’s weak operating print into a second-half recovery if construction costs keep falling, newer-community mix keeps improving, and buybacks amplify per-share value creation.
The recent acquisition headlines also keep event-driven upside alive.

BearKey bullets

Gross margin and SG&A still showed year-over-year pressure in the fiscal Q2 2026 release.
Leverage remains elevated, with total debt to total capitalization at 51.2% and net debt to net capitalization at 48.7%.
M&A headline volatility can divert focus from operating execution and complicate valuation anchoring.

WatchKey bullets

Fiscal Q2 2026 print showed softer demand and lower margins

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $26 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +23% / -27%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $32 (p=30%)Base Target: $26 (p=50%)Bear Target: $19 (p=20%)

Commentary

Primary-source operating tone is mixed to slightly constructive: the April 30 release showed lower revenue, weaker margins, softer orders, and a larger leverage load, but management still pointed to visible second-half margin levers and authorized accelerated repurchases. Recent Dream Finders acquisition-proposal headlines add event-driven optionality, yet the packet contains no analyst-revision data or definitive deal terms, so this remains a cautious monitoring setup rather than a high-conviction bull case.

As of 2026-06-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Demand could stay soft if mortgage rates and affordability pressure remain elevated, while lower margins, weaker orders/backlog, and higher leverage limit room for disappointment.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Second-half margin recovery levers remain visible

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-06-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.18

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Fiscal Q2 2026 print showed softer demand and lower margins
The April 30, 2026 SEC release reported a $0.03 per share net loss, homebuilding revenue down 28.5% year over year, gross margin of 12.0% (15.6% excluding impairments, abandonments, and amortized interest), and management said March mortgage-rate and gas-price spikes made near-term demand more cautious. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
Prob 75.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Second-half margin recovery levers remain visible
2026-10-31
Management said construction-cost reductions, favorable community and to-be-built mix shifts, and contributions from newer communities continue to materialize, while accelerated share repurchases and fiscal 2027 deleveraging/book-value goals support a longer-run rerating if demand stabilizes. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Gross margin and SG&A still showed year-over-year pressure in the fiscal Q2 2026 release.
Leverage remains elevated, with total debt to total capitalization at 51.2% and net debt to net capitalization at 48.7%.
M&A headline volatility can divert focus from operating execution and complicate valuation anchoring.
Near-term demand remains sensitive to mortgage rates, gas prices, and broader affordability pressure.
Orders and backlog were lower year over year, despite a larger active community count.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HOV	Small-cap homebuilder peer; useful for comparing order pace, margin resilience, and balance-sheet sensitivity in the same housing cycle.
SDHC	Direct homebuilding peer with a similar market-cap band; useful as a relative read on demand, incentives, and valuation dispersion.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-06-09

AI Stock Memo: BZH - Beazer Homes USA - RankAlpha