BXMT

Rating buyAI Memo

Blackstone Mortgage Trust

As of 2026-02-13/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025 results release • 2026-02-11

Base target: $20 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Rising rates or credit markdowns force NAV write‑downs and payout cuts, leaving the stock below current levels.

Invalidation

Break below $19 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Stable credit marks, sustained distribution coverage and a re‑rating toward upper analyst targets lift the shares.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-13

Base target

$20

p=60%

Bull target

$23

p=20%

Bear target

$19

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly dividend declaration
Rate and cap‑rate trajectory
Stable credit marks, sustained distribution coverage and a re‑rating toward upper analyst targets lift the shares.

BearKey bullets

Cap‑rate expansion causing NAV markdowns
Credit losses from sponsored loans or CRE exposure
Dividend cut or reduced coverage

WatchKey bullets

FY2025 results release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $20 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +12% / -7%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $23 (p=20%)Base Target: $20 (p=60%)Bear Target: $19 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus is mixed-to-neutral with median targets modestly above the current price. Near-term focus is payout sustainability and rate sensitivity; longer-term debate centers on NAV/cap‑rate direction [#SERP-6][#SERP-5][#SERP-4].

As of 2026-02-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Stable credit marks, sustained distribution coverage and a re‑rating toward upper analyst targets lift the shares.

Bear Case

Rising rates or credit markdowns force NAV write‑downs and payout cuts, leaving the stock below current levels.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly dividend declaration
Rate and cap‑rate trajectory

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$20.48

Range (USD)

$19.00 - $23.00

Count

Query: Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc Class A Common (BXMT) analyst consensus price target high low average

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
Find the latest Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and ...
Open source
BXMT Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target ...
Search result #2
Financial analysts have set a price target of $21, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $21.00Open source
BXMT Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #3
The price of BXMT shares has increased $0.40 since the market last closed. This is a 2.04% rise. Closed at $20.01.
Extracted: $20.01Open source
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Cl A Research & Ratings | BXMT
Search result #4
ConsensusHoldBuy. Stock Price Target. High, $23.00. Low, $19.00. Average, $20.94. Current Price, $19.61. BXMT will report FY 2025 earnings on 02/11/2026. Yearly ...
Extracted: $23.00, $19.00, $20.94, $19.61Open source
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc Analyst Ratings - BXMT - Benzinga
Search result #5
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc has a consensus price target of $21.22 based on the ratings of 10 analysts. The high is $23 issued by BTIG on July 19, 2024.
Extracted: $21.22, $23.00Open source
Consensus Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #6
Last Close Price. 20.02USD. Average target price. 20.94USD. Spread / Average Target. +4.58%. High Price Target. 23.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +14.89%. Low ...
Extracted: $20.02, $20.94, $23.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-11
FY2025 results release
FY2025 results (2026-02-11) — market reaction to book-value marks and distribution coverage could prompt a near-term re-rating [#SERP-4].
Prob 70.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly dividend declaration
2026-05-14
Upcoming quarterly distribution (assumed ~90 days) will test dividend sustainability and can trigger yield repricing or confirmation of coverage [#SERP-9].
Prob 85% • Move 3% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Rate and cap‑rate trajectory
2027-02-13
Fed policy and cap‑rate movements drive NAV and earnings sensitivity; sustained cap‑rate widening or credit tightening would pressure BXMT over the next 12 months [#SERP-4].
Prob 65% • Move -10% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Cap‑rate expansion causing NAV markdowns
Credit losses from sponsored loans or CRE exposure
Dividend cut or reduced coverage
Rising interest rates and higher funding costs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AGNC	Agency mREIT with comparable rate sensitivity; useful for yield and book‑value trends.
MFA	Hybrid mortgage REIT offering contrast on capital structure and credit exposure.
STWD	Larger REIT with CRE/mortgage exposure; helpful to gauge market appetite for credit risk.
LADR	Smaller-cap mortgage REIT active in portfolio rotation—comparable for discount dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc Class A Common (BXMT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-13

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Symbol

Summary

AGNC

Agency mREIT with comparable rate sensitivity; useful for yield and book‑value trends.

MFA

Hybrid mortgage REIT offering contrast on capital structure and credit exposure.

STWD

Larger REIT with CRE/mortgage exposure; helpful to gauge market appetite for credit risk.

LADR

Smaller-cap mortgage REIT active in portfolio rotation—comparable for discount dynamics.