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BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage TrustB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Stable credit marks, sustained distribution coverage and a re‑rating toward upper analyst targets lift the shares.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Cap‑rate expansion causing NAV markdowns
Momentum
10
Value
53
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.48 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-02-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.86
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d +1.2
Value53 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment84 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cap‑rate expansion causing NAV markdowns
  • • Credit losses from sponsored loans or CRE exposure
  • • Rising rates or credit markdowns force NAV write‑downs and payout cuts, leaving the stock below current levels.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-11

FY2025 results release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+2.2
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 9.8 / Value 52.6 / Sentiment 84.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$20.48
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.4B
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
168.54M
P/E (TTM)
31.2
P/S (TTM)
2.11
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
222.85
Rev YoY
-2.9%
EPS YoY
-1286.9%
Gross Margin
+77.1%
Op Margin
+61.1%
Net Debt
$15.7B
Current Ratio
0.14
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data