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BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage TrustC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
At the $12.41 September 28 anchor, shares trade well below the $19.31 Q2 reported book value per share. Successful legacy-loan resolutions and earnings from newer investments could narrow that discount.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Additional office or mixed-use loan impairments and CECL reserve increases could erode book value. Q2 SEC presentation
Momentum
10
Value
55
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.86
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d -0.0
Value55 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +0.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Additional office or mixed-use loan impairments and CECL reserve increases could erode book value. Q2 SEC presentation
  • • Realized losses could keep distributable earnings below the dividend despite the September declaration. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] Company dividend announcement
  • • Q2 distributable EPS of $0.31 did not cover the $0.47 dividend, while new impairments and higher reserves weaken confidence in reported book value.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Declared third-quarter dividend

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-2.9
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-9.0
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-7.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 10.2 / Value 55.3 / Sentiment 62.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.79B
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
168.54M
P/E (TTM)
31.2
P/S (TTM)
2.11
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
165.88
Rev YoY
-2.9%
EPS YoY
-1286.9%
Gross Margin
+77.1%
Op Margin
+61.1%
Net Debt
$15.7B
Current Ratio
0.14
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data