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AI Stock Memo: BWXT - BWX - RankAlpha

BWXT

AI Memo

BWX

As of 2026-02-24/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings / guidance update • 2026-05-25

Base target: $209 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Contract delays, cost overruns, or defense/DOE funding cuts hinder backlog conversion and margins, driving the valuation down toward our bear target in the low analyst range.

Invalidation

Break below $165 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Material contract awards and flawless execution convert backlog into revenue and margin expansion, prompting a re‑rating toward premium multiples and pushing price toward our bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-24

Base target

$209

p=60%

Bull target

$260

p=20%

Bear target

$165

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Analyst coverage and target revisions
Major government/DOE contract award or decision

BearKey bullets

Defense spending shifts or budget uncertainty
Major contract cancellations or scope reductions
Regulatory or DOE decision delays on nuclear projects

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 214, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-24T13:13:33+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Valuation note: base_target set equal to the analyst median of 209.07.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $209 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +24% / -21%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $260 (p=20%)Base Target: $209 (p=60%)Bear Target: $165 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is cautiously mixed: analyst consensus centers near 209 (median) while the last broker quote is modestly higher at 214, implying limited near-term upside without confirming contract wins [#SERP-7][#SERP-6]. Coverage notes show a spread of views (low ~ 158.51 to high ~ 278) that drives polarized short- and long-term scenarios [#SERP-2]. Overall tone is watchful—execution and awarded contracts will likely be the primary drivers of sentiment shifts.

As of 2026-02-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Material contract awards and flawless execution convert backlog into revenue and margin expansion, prompting a re‑rating toward premium multiples and pushing price toward our bull target.

Bear Case

Contract delays, cost overruns, or defense/DOE funding cuts hinder backlog conversion and margins, driving the valuation down toward our bear target in the low analyst range.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Analyst coverage and target revisions
Major government/DOE contract award or decision

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$209.07

Range (USD)

$158.51 - $278.00

Count

Query: BWX Technologies Inc Common (BWXT) analyst consensus price target high low average

BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
400M. 600M. 800M. View More. Analyst Insights: BWXT. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 182.00 Low. 224.44 Average. 198.38 Current. 278.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
BWX Technologies (BWXT) Price Targets
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $177.60 to a high of $250.00. The average price target represents an increase of 3.32% from the last closing price of $206.44.
Extracted: $177.60, $250.00, $206.44Open source
BWX Technologies Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:BWXT
Search result #3
BWX Technologies Inc has a consensus price target of $158.51 based on the ratings of 14 analysts. The high is $230 issued by B of A Securities on November ...
Extracted: $158.51, $230.00Open source
BWX Tech (BWXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #4
According to projections from 9 analysts, the average 12-month price target for BWX Tech is 224.44, with a high estimate of 278 and a low estimate of 182.
Open source
BWXT Stock Forecast - BWX Technologies Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
Wall Street analysts forecast BWXT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BWXT is ...
Open source
BWX Technologies, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 12 ; Last Close Price. 201.09USD ; Average target price. 224.44USD ; Spread / Average Target. +11.61%.
Extracted: $201.09, $224.44Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$260 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$209 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$165 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-02-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
2026-05-25
Next quarterly earnings and guidance can move shares materially; analysts' 12‑month median ~ 209 implies near-term sensitivity to beat/miss vs guidance [#SERP-7]. Assumed date estimate (no confirmed date).
Prob 45% • Move 10% • Priced-in 60%
Analyst coverage and target revisions
2026-05-25
Wall Street target revisions and coverage changes (consensus mean/median referenced in market sources) can produce near-term repricing [#SERP-6][#SERP-2]. Assumed date estimate for next round of updates.
Prob 25% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Major government/DOE contract award or decision
2027-02-24
Award, scope change, or cancellation of a large government/DOE nuclear contract would re-rate backlog and long-term cash flow; timing uncertain, date estimated conservatively [#SERP-1].
Prob 30% • Move 35% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Defense spending shifts or budget uncertainty
Major contract cancellations or scope reductions
Regulatory or DOE decision delays on nuclear projects
Supply-chain cost inflation and execution delays

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NOC	Northrop Grumman — defense prime; proxy for program award sensitivity and backlog valuation.
LMT	Lockheed Martin — major defense contractor; comparable on program execution and award cadence.
J	Engineering/construction peer; signals project execution and supply‑chain risk.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: BWX Technologies Inc Common (BWXT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-24