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BWXT

BWXB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 commercial revenue rose 72% year over year, management raised FY2026 guidance, and the new investment-grade rating adds financing flexibility. Investor Day could strengthen confidence in capacity returns and PCG integration.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.
What can break
Government Operations EBITDA declined in Q2 despite consolidated revenue growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
22
Value
48
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $151.00 · Bull $175.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $210.25
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -3.5
Value48 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +9.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Government Operations EBITDA declined in Q2 despite consolidated revenue growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • Maintaining investment-grade leverage and executing the growth strategy remain risks identified in BWXT's rating announcement. [#IR-2026-09-23] Company release
  • • Q2 Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell 5% year over year, free cash flow fell 9%, and capital expenditure rose.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-29

September 29 Investor Day

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-1.5
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
73
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
-0.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 22.1 / Value 47.8 / Sentiment 73.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$151.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$11.65B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
91.62M
P/E (TTM)
56.5
P/S (TTM)
5.65
P/FCF (TTM)
46.57
Rev YoY
+18.0%
EPS YoY
+13.2%
Gross Margin
+22.1%
Op Margin
+9.7%
Net Debt
$1.56B
Current Ratio
2.40
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data