BORR

TentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Borr Drilling

As of 2026-05-23/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 print showed lower EBITDA and delayed Odin startup [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026] • 2026-05-21

Expected move: +35%

Biggest risk

The bearish case is that Q1 showed real execution friction: revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined sequentially, Odin startup moved to late June, and management already warned Q2 will still be affected by the delay and rig transitions. If contract starts slip or dayrate recovery is slow, backlog additions may not translate quickly into earnings upside.

Invalidation

Break below $4 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The constructive case rests on high utilization, increased 2026 contract coverage, a larger modern jack-up fleet, and a cleaner maturity profile after the convert refinancing. If tender activity and dayrates improve with the lag management described, 2027-2028 could look better than the Q1 transition period.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-23

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Convertible refinancing supports the maturity profile [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]
Backlog and fleet expansion improve 2026 coverage but require execution [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]
The constructive case rests on high utilization, increased 2026 contract coverage, a larger modern jack-up fleet, and a cleaner maturity profile after the convert refinancing.

BearKey bullets

Delayed Odin startup and rig transition downtime could keep Q2 results under pressure.
Fleet acquisition and joint-venture execution risk could offset the strategic value of fleet expansion.
Management said dayrate and activity improvement may lag oil-price moves by 6 to 12 months, limiting near-term operating leverage.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 print showed lower EBITDA and delayed Odin startup [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $6 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +67% / -5%

Vs latest close: Bull +67% · Base +35% · Bear -5%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $7 (p=25%)Base Target: $6 (p=45%)Bear Target: $4 (p=30%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone is cautious. The company source confirms weaker sequential revenue and adjusted EBITDA, a net loss, Odin timing slippage, and Q2 transition pressure. BORR's May 22 anchor price was $5.52, and a market data check showed the stock lower versus the prior close on May 22, so the immediate reaction appears negative but not enough by itself to establish a durable trend. I did not find clear post-print analyst target or estimate revisions in the checked sources, so confidence remains limited.

As of 2026-05-23 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Convertible refinancing supports the maturity profile [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]
Backlog and fleet expansion improve 2026 coverage but require execution [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=30% prob

Price $4 as of 2026-07-10

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +67% · Base +35% · Bear -5%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.42

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-21
Q1 print showed lower EBITDA and delayed Odin startup [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]
Borr reported Q1 2026 revenue of $247.0M, adjusted EBITDA of $88.5M, and a net loss of $29.0M. Management said the Odin startup was delayed to late June and that Q2 will continue to be affected by the delayed startup and rigs transitioning between contracts; Q1 also included an $8.4M credit loss provision despite 99.4% technical utilization and 97.0% economic utilization.
Prob 98.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Convertible refinancing supports the maturity profile [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]
2026-08-31
Subsequent to quarter-end, Borr completed a $300M senior unsecured convertible note offering due 2033 and used proceeds mainly to repurchase existing 2028 convertible bonds. Management said the transaction extended the maturity profile, lowered financing cost, and increased the conversion price, making it a balance-sheet support rather than a near-term earnings catalyst.
Prob 70% • Move 3% • Priced-in 55%
Backlog and fleet expansion improve 2026 coverage but require execution [#PR-BORR-Q1-2026]
2026-09-30
The company said year-to-date 2026 contract commitments reached 13, representing more than 2,250 days and $274M of Dayrate Equivalent Backlog, while another 772 days were recognized from the Noble acquisition. Management also said full-year 2026 coverage increased to 71% at an average dayrate of about $137,000 and second-half coverage rose to 65%, but the benefit depends on contract starts and closing the planned JV rig acquisition.
Prob 75% • Move 4% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Delayed Odin startup and rig transition downtime could keep Q2 results under pressure.
Fleet acquisition and joint-venture execution risk could offset the strategic value of fleet expansion.
Management said dayrate and activity improvement may lag oil-price moves by 6 to 12 months, limiting near-term operating leverage.
The $8.4M credit loss provision makes receivable quality and customer payment risk a near-term watch item.
The post-print analyst-revision picture is unclear, and the available peer set is better after adding offshore drillers but still imperfect because fleet mix and geography differ.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NE	Noble is a more direct offshore-drilling comparator because it operates jack-up rigs and was the seller in Borr's recently completed five-rig acquisition; it is still larger and more diversified than Borr.
VAL	Valaris is a direct offshore-drilling comparator with jack-up exposure, making it more relevant than broad energy-sector market-cap peers for dayrate, utilization, and tender-cycle context.
SDRL	Seadrill is an offshore-drilling peer with some jack-up exposure, but its floater exposure and fleet mix make it an imperfect benchmark for Borr's premium jack-up-focused thesis.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-23

AI Stock Memo: BORR - Borr Drilling - RankAlpha