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BORR

Borr DrillingD
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is a temporary Q2 trough: contract transitions are largely complete, Q3 activity should increase, backlog and contract coverage are improving, and refinancing extended maturities while increasing revolving liquidity. A stored analyst-target summary shows $4.84, about 20% above the $4.04 anchor, but target breadth is unavailable.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
What can break
Debt outstanding was approximately $2.53 billion at June 30, 2026, creating meaningful interest, refinancing, covenant, and amortization risk.
Momentum
27
Value
45
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.60 · Bull $5.25 · Bear $3.20Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.66
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d +2.7
Value45 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt outstanding was approximately $2.53 billion at June 30, 2026, creating meaningful interest, refinancing, covenant, and amortization risk.
  • • Middle East conflict and broader geopolitical volatility are delaying tenders and contract starts, limiting forward visibility.
  • • The bear case is that Q3 improvement is delayed by Odin execution, Middle East-related tender uncertainty, weak dayrates or suspensions, and the company's heavy debt burden.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-12

Potential Q3 EBITDA rebound

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+5.8
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
-2.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 27.0 / Value 45.3 / Sentiment 61.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$1.35B
Beta
-
Shares Out
307.7M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
25.7
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.14
Rev YoY
-13.2%
EPS YoY
-634.6%
Gross Margin
+26.2%
Op Margin
+20.8%
Net Debt
$1.77B
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data