BODI

AI Memo

Beachbody

As of 2026-08-12/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-08-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 profitability beat, but revenue remains pressured • 2026-08-10

Base target: $6 / p=45% prob

Biggest risk

The core demand trend remains weak. Q2 revenue fell 22.4% year over year, digital subscriptions fell 19.1%, total subscriptions fell 17.8%, and six-month operating cash flow was negative $4.3M. Q3 guidance allows for another net loss and lower revenue.

Invalidation

Break below $3 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The turnaround is producing sustained profitability: Q2 marked the fourth consecutive quarter of operating and net income and the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA rose 45.7% year over year despite lower revenue, while retail expansion offers a route to broader nutrition distribution.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-08-12

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

$10

p=20%

Bear target

p=35%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q3 outlook signals another earnings reset
Omni-channel nutrition expansion remains the principal upside option
The turnaround is producing sustained profitability: Q2 marked the fourth consecutive quarter of operating and net income and the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

BearKey bullets

Low coverage and approximately $45.6M market capitalization increase liquidity and volatility risk.
Persistent revenue and digital-subscription contraction could overwhelm margin improvements.
Q3 guidance includes revenue decline and a possible net loss.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 profitability beat, but revenue remains pressured

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $6 (p=45%)

Target spread vs base: +67% / -50%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $10 (p=20%)Base Target: $6 (p=45%)Bear Target: $3 (p=35%)

Commentary

Q2 headline tone is positive on profitability and EBITDA, but mixed overall because revenue, subscriptions, streams, and cash flow remain weak. The packet provides an August 11 anchor price of $6.29 but no clean post-release return attribution. No social coverage or post-print analyst revisions are available, and the sparse $17 target median has no reported target count. This supports a cautious monitoring stance rather than a high-conviction bullish interpretation.

As of 2026-08-12 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q3 outlook signals another earnings reset
Omni-channel nutrition expansion remains the principal upside option

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=35% prob

Analysis 2026-08-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.15

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-10
Q2 profitability beat, but revenue remains pressured
Q2 revenue was $49.6M, operating income $1.7M, net income $1.4M, and adjusted EBITDA $6.7M. Management reported revenue above the midpoint and adjusted EBITDA above the high end of guidance, with a fourth consecutive quarter of operating and net income. However, revenue declined 22.4% year over year and digital subscriptions fell 19.1%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Prob 100.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 75.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q3 outlook signals another earnings reset
2026-09-30
Q3 outlook is revenue of $44M-$48M, net income between a $3M loss and breakeven, and adjusted EBITDA of $3M-$6M. This keeps profitability possible but implies continued top-line contraction and weaker near-term earnings momentum. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Prob 70% • Move -12% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Omni-channel nutrition expansion remains the principal upside option
2026-12-31
Management is expanding retail distribution for brands including P90X and Shakeology while continuing direct-to-consumer reach. Successful customer acquisition and migration into digital fitness could improve growth and mix, but execution has not yet offset declining revenue and subscriptions. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Prob 45% • Move 25% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Low coverage and approximately $45.6M market capitalization increase liquidity and volatility risk.
Persistent revenue and digital-subscription contraction could overwhelm margin improvements.
Q3 guidance includes revenue decline and a possible net loss.
Retail and omni-channel expansion may require execution, marketing investment, and successful customer migration.
Six-month operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BRAG	Same-sector, similar-market-cap comparator only; the packet does not establish direct nutrition or digital-fitness comparability.
RAVE	Small Consumer Services scale comparator; useful mainly for size and volatility context rather than operating similarity.
STG	Same-sector scale reference with an unconfirmed operating match to BODI's nutrition and digital-fitness model.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-08-12

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Symbol

Summary

BRAG

Same-sector, similar-market-cap comparator only; the packet does not establish direct nutrition or digital-fitness comparability.

RAVE

Small Consumer Services scale comparator; useful mainly for size and volatility context rather than operating similarity.

STG

Same-sector scale reference with an unconfirmed operating match to BODI's nutrition and digital-fitness model.