AI Stock Memo: BJRI - BJ's Restaurants - RankAlpha

BJRI

AI Memo

BJ's Restaurants

As of 2026-02-14/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings release • 2026-02-20

Expected move: -12%

Biggest risk

Traffic softness, protracted cost inflation, or a guidance miss drives consensus toward the low $30s and compresses multiples, prompting downgrades [#SERP-5].

Invalidation

Break below $30 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Execution drives above-consensus comps and margin expansion; analysts lift targets (e.g., $50 by Jefferies) and multiple expands toward the high end of the range [#SERP-2].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-14

Base target

$41

p=60%

Bull target

$54

p=20%

Bear target

$30

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release
Analyst target revisions
Execution of unit-growth and margin initiatives

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades and negative revisions
Execution risk on unit growth/expansion
Missed guidance on margins or unit economics

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 40.3, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-14T11:41:55+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} Rating-to-target note: 'hold' is coherent with a base target close to the anchor, reflecting limited near-term upside to base and balanced scenario probabilities.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $41 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -36%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base -12% · Bear -36%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $54 (p=20%)Base Target: $41 (p=60%)Bear Target: $30 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is mixed with analysts ranging from sell/low‑$30 targets to buy/upper‑$40s–$50s, reflecting dispersion in growth and margin expectations [#SERP-1][#SERP-2]. Near-term focus is on the Feb earnings release and guidance, which investors view as the primary re‑rating catalyst [#SERP-8]. Consensus price targets cluster between roughly $30 and $54, indicating moderate uncertainty and asymmetric outcomes into results [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-02-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Execution drives above-consensus comps and margin expansion; analysts lift targets (e.g., $50 by Jefferies) and multiple expands toward the high end of the range [#SERP-2].

Bear Case

Traffic softness, protracted cost inflation, or a guidance miss drives consensus toward the low $30s and compresses multiples, prompting downgrades [#SERP-5].

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings release
Analyst target revisions
Execution of unit-growth and margin initiatives

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$41.09

Range (USD)

$30.00 - $54.00

Count

Query: BJ's Restaurants Inc Common (BJRI) analyst consensus price target high low average

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Raising target price to $35.00 ... BJ'S RESTAURANTS INC has an Investment Rating of SELL; a target price of $35.000000; an Industry Subrating of Low; a Management ...
Extracted: $35.00Open source
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) Receives Consensus ...
Search result #2
Jefferies Financial Group reaffirmed a "buy" rating and issued a $50.00 price target on shares of BJ's Restaurants in a research note on Friday, ...
Extracted: $50.00Open source1 day ago
Bj's Restaurants Inc (BJRI-Q) Analyst Research & Price Targets
Search result #3
Earnings Estimates ; Average Estimate, 0.59, 0.69 ; Number of Estimates, 3, 4 ; High Estimate, 0.63, 0.83 ; Low Estimate, 0.57, 0.63 ...
Open source
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #4
The forecasts for BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) range from a low of $38 to a high of $54. The average price target represents a increase of $1.83 from the last ...
Extracted: $38.00, $54.00, $1.83Open source
BJRI | BJ's Restaurants Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #5
N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $50.00. Median, $38.00. Low, $30.00. Average, $38.71. Current Price, $41.09. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BJRI will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $50.00, $38.00, $30.00, $38.71, $41.09Open source
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. analysts consensus, targets, ratings and recommendations | Nasdaq: BJRI | Nasdaq.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$54 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=20% prob

Price $47 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 12%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base -12% · Bear -36%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings release
2026-02-20
Scheduled quarterly results and guidance (EPS date noted Feb 20); market will reprice on comp trends and margin outlook [#SERP-8].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%
Analyst target revisions
2026-05-15
Ongoing analyst notes and target changes (e.g., Jefferies $50 PT on 2026-02-13); upgrades/downgrades could move the stock around earnings and over the next quarter [#SERP-2][#SERP-5].
Prob 40% • Move 15% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Execution of unit-growth and margin initiatives
2027-02-14
Successful unit expansion, menu/operational improvements and cost control could drive multiple expansion over 12 months; execution risk remains material [#SERP-4].
Prob 30% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Analyst downgrades and negative revisions
Execution risk on unit growth/expansion
Missed guidance on margins or unit economics
Rising food and labor cost inflation
Weaker-than-expected comps/traffic

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CAKE	Similar casual‑dining exposure and leisure demand sensitivity; useful comparator for menu/margin dynamics.
RRGB	Casual chain with value/promotional cadence and comparable labor/food cost exposure.
TXRH	Larger unit-growth focused operator; provides context on unit economics and loyalty-driven traffic.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: BJ's Restaurants Inc Common (BJRI) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-14