BBD

AI Memo

Banco Bradesco n-vtg Pfd

As of 2025-09-27/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-09-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Q3 2025 results release • 2025-10-30

Expected move: -4%

Biggest risk

Bear case: BRL weakness, rising loan-loss provisions, or regulatory capital surprise would compress NIMs and lower USD returns, driving the ADR toward the bear target (~-25% from the anchor to 2.48). This scenario reflects sustained macro stress or idiosyncratic asset-quality deterioration.

Invalidation

Break below $2 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: Material macro and FX improvement (BRL appreciation, lower inflation) combined with continued fee-income growth and falling credit costs could lift the ADR toward the bull target (~+35% from the anchor to 4.46). This outcome requires a notable recovery in investor risk appetite and is conditional on macro/FX, not company-specific moves alone.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-09-27

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Regulatory or capital requirement surprise
Brazil macro/FX stabilization
Bull case: Material macro and FX improvement (BRL appreciation, lower inflation) combined with continued fee-income growth and falling credit costs could lift the ADR toward the bull target (~+35% from the anchor to 4.46).

BearKey bullets

BRL volatility and currency translation risk impacting USD ADR returns [#BCB]
Higher-than-expected loan-loss provisions / asset-quality deterioration [#BradescoIR]
Macroeconomic slowdown in Brazil reducing credit demand and fee income [#BloombergMacro]

WatchKey bullets

Q3 2025 results release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $3 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +24% / -31%

Vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base -4% · Bear -31%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $4 (p=25%)Base Target: $3 (p=50%)Bear Target: $2 (p=25%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautious-to-neutral: investors await Q3 results and track FX moves closely. Resilient NIMs and lower provisioning are rewarded, but macro/FX remain the dominant drivers. Overall positioning is mixed — selective buying on signs of macro improvement and defensive otherwise.

As of 2025-09-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Regulatory or capital requirement surprise
Brazil macro/FX stabilization

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=25% prob

Price $4 as of 2026-07-13

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base -4% · Bear -31%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2025-10-30
Q3 2025 results release
Quarterly results could move shares via net interest margin, loan-loss provisions and fee income; typical catalyst for Brazilian banks [#BradescoIR], [#NYSE].
Prob 75.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Regulatory or capital requirement surprise
TBD
Unexpected higher capital requirements or provisioning guidance from regulators would be negative for valuation [#CVM],[#BradescoIR].
Prob 20% • Move -15% • Priced-in 5%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Brazil macro/FX stabilization
2026-03-31
Stronger BRL or stable inflation supports asset quality and remuneration of local operations, benefiting ADR in USD terms [#BCB],[#BloombergMacro].
Prob 40% • Move 20% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

BRL volatility and currency translation risk impacting USD ADR returns [#BCB]
Higher-than-expected loan-loss provisions / asset-quality deterioration [#BradescoIR]
Macroeconomic slowdown in Brazil reducing credit demand and fee income [#BloombergMacro]
Regulatory changes or increased capital requirements in Brazil [#CVM]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ITUB	Itaú Unibanco - largest private Brazilian bank by assets; similar retail/commercial footprint and ADR on NYSE, useful revenue/asset-quality comparator [#ITUB-NYSE].

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-09-27

AI Stock Memo: BBD - Banco Bradesco n-vtg Pfd - RankAlpha