AVA

AI Memo

Avista

As of 2026-02-26/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Regulatory/rate-case outcome or material utility filing • 2026-05-27

Base target: $41 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Unfavorable rate-case outcomes, sustained margin pressure, or persistent high interest rates would compress multiples and push the stock toward the analyst low (36.0), particularly if earnings or load weaken materially.

Invalidation

Break below $36 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Favorable regulatory rulings, steady load growth, and positive analyst revisions could re-rate AVA toward the analyst high (51.45). This outcome requires clear regulatory wins or sustained operational improvement and is conditional rather than the base-case path.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-26

Base target

$41

p=60%

Bull target

$51

p=20%

Bear target

$36

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Capital-allocation / dividend policy review
Favorable regulatory rulings, steady load growth, and positive analyst revisions could re-rate AVA toward the analyst high (51.45).

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on capital projects
Rising interest rates increasing financing costs
Severe weather reducing load or increasing costs

WatchKey bullets

Regulatory/rate-case outcome or material utility filing

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $41 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +25% / -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $51 (p=20%)Base Target: $41 (p=60%)Bear Target: $36 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus analyst coverage is broadly neutral-to-hold with a tight cluster around the low‑40s, producing a muted near-term sentiment backdrop [#SERP-3], [#SERP-8]. Market commentary shows limited upside consensus but a notable high estimate tail, indicating asymmetric scenario risk [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-02-26 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Capital-allocation / dividend policy review

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-26Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$41.20

Range (USD)

$36.00 - $51.45

Count

Query: Avista Corp Common (AVA) analyst consensus price target high low average

Avista Corp (AVA) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #1
The average price target is $36.00 with a high forecast of $36.00 and a low forecast of $36.00. The average price target represents a -15.07% change from the ...
Extracted: $36.00Open source
Avista Corporation (AVA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
FY25. 0. 200M. 400M. 600M. View More. Analyst Insights: AVA. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 36.00 Low. 40.40 Average. 40.61 Current. 49.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Avista Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 6 ; Last Close Price. 43.08USD ; Average target price. 40.60USD ; Spread / Average Target. -5.76%.
Extracted: $43.08, $40.60Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Avista (AVA)
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $36.00 to a high of $41.00. The average price target represents a decline of 10.4% from the last closing price of $42.69.
Extracted: $36.00, $41.00, $42.69Open source
AVA Stock Forecast 2026 - Avista Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #5
Based on our analysis of 6 Wall Street analysts, AVA has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $39.00 (ranging from $36.00 to $49.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $39.00, $36.00, $49.00Open source
AVA Stock Ratings & Analyst Recommendations - Financhill
Search result #6
The 5 analysts providing 12-month price projections for Avista Corp. shares anticipate an average target of $41.20, ranging from a low estimate of $36.00 to ...
Extracted: $41.20, $36.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$51 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-27
Regulatory/rate-case outcome or material utility filing
A state rate-case decision or regulatory filing outcome would materially affect cash flow and allowed ROE; timing not disclosed publicly here so expected_date uses conservative window end assumption [#SERP-3].
Prob 50.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
2026-05-27
Next quarterly report could move shares on EPS/guidance vs. utility peers; market consensus targets show tight 12‑month forecasts near current price which may mute volatility [#SERP-2], [#SERP-3]. Date estimated by short-horizon rule (assumed) — see expected_date note.
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital-allocation / dividend policy review
2027-02-26
Longer-term outcome from management on dividends, share repurchases, or merger activity could re-rate the stock relative to regional utility peers; consensus targets span a wide range implying optionality [#SERP-5], [#SERP-8].
Prob 40% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Execution risk on capital projects
Rising interest rates increasing financing costs
Severe weather reducing load or increasing costs
Unfavorable regulatory rate-case rulings

Peers

Symbol	Summary
IDA	Idacorp — similar regional utility footprint and rate-case exposure; useful operational comparator.
AEE	Ameren — Midwestern regulated utility with comparable regulatory sensitivity and capital plans.
EIX	Edison International — Larger investor-owned utility; useful reference for decarbonization and capital-allocation signals.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Avista Corp Common (AVA) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-26

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Symbol

Summary

IDA

Idacorp — similar regional utility footprint and rate-case exposure; useful operational comparator.

AEE

Ameren — Midwestern regulated utility with comparable regulatory sensitivity and capital plans.

EIX

Edison International — Larger investor-owned utility; useful reference for decarbonization and capital-allocation signals.