ASX

AI Memo

ASE

As of 2026-02-02/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings release (estimated) • 2026-05-03

Expected move: -50%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes prolonged customer destocking, price pressure, or geopolitical disruption that compresses volumes and margins, pushing the ADR toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $17 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes stronger-than-expected recovery in packaging/test demand, higher utilization, and improved ASPs leading to margin expansion and re-rating toward the high analyst targets.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-02

Base target

$19

p=60%

Bull target

$23

p=20%

Bear target

$17

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Customer inventory destocking / order variability
Industry packaging & testing demand recovery
Bull case assumes stronger-than-expected recovery in packaging/test demand, higher utilization, and improved ASPs leading to margin expansion and re-rating toward the high analyst targets.

BearKey bullets

Customer concentration (large accounts drive orders)
Cyclical semiconductor demand / customer inventory swings
Geopolitical / cross‑strait supply‑chain disruption

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release (estimated)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $19 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -40% / -56%

Vs latest close: Bull -40% · Base -50% · Bear -56%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $23 (p=20%)Base Target: $19 (p=60%)Bear Target: $17 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst coverage is tightly clustered around the high teens with a median near $19.35, indicating limited consensus upside from the current anchor [#SERP-1]. Market commentary shows a mix of cautious optimism about packaging demand recovery and concern over near-term order variability [#SERP-7]. Overall tone is neutral-to-cautious as investors wait for clearer demand signals and quarterly guidance [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-02 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes stronger-than-expected recovery in packaging/test demand, higher utilization, and improved ASPs leading to margin expansion and re-rating toward the high analyst targets.

Bear Case

Bear case assumes prolonged customer destocking, price pressure, or geopolitical disruption that compresses volumes and margins, pushing the ADR toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Customer inventory destocking / order variability
Industry packaging & testing demand recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-02Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$19.35

Range (USD)

$17.00 - $23.00

Count

Query: ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd ADR (ASX) analyst consensus price target high low average

ASX | ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. ADR Analyst Estimates
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $19.30. Median, $19.30. Low, $19.30. Average, $19.30. Current Price, $19.78. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. ASX will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $19.30, $19.78Open source
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #2
Analyst Price Targets. 18.14 Low. 20.61 Average. 18.98 Current. 23.00 High ... Usually paid out on a quarterly basis in the form of cash or additional stocks. 0 ...
Open source
ASE Technology Hldg (ASX) Price Targets - Zacks
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $19.30 to a high of $23.00. The average price target represents an increase of 6.93% from the last closing price of $19.78.
Extracted: $19.30, $23.00, $19.78Open source
ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. ADR Analyst Estimates & Ratings
Search result #4
ADR ASX ... Stock Price Target ASX. High, $19.30. Median, $19.30. Low, $19.30. Average, $19.30. Current Price, $19.39. Related Links: Options · Overview ...
Extracted: $19.30, $19.39Open source
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.: Target Price Consensus and ...
Search result #5
Analysts' Consensus ; Spread / Average Target. -9.25% ; High Price Target. 350.00TWD ; Spread / Highest target. +17.85% ; Low Price Target. 160.00TWD ; Spread / ...
Open source
ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. ADR Research & Ratings - Barron's
Search result #6
Stock Price Target ; High, $19.30 ; Low, $19.30 ; Average, $19.30 ; Current Price, $19.78 ...
Extracted: $19.30, $19.78Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=20% prob

Price $38 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 40%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -40% · Base -50% · Bear -56%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-03
Quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Next quarterly results (assumed release window; date estimated) — market reaction likely to hinge on margin guidance and back-end demand commentary. Date is estimated due to lack of a disclosed IR date [#SERP-1].
Prob 75.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Customer inventory destocking / order variability
2026-05-03
Unexpected customer inventory adjustments or near-term order deferrals could drive a sharp re-price; short-term downside risk if key customers pause orders.
Prob 30% • Move 12% • Priced-in 20%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Industry packaging & testing demand recovery
2027-02-02
Sustained recovery in semiconductor packaging and test demand from AI and auto markets could materially lift revenue and utilization over the next year; outcome depends on customer capex cycles and order book conversion [#SERP-7].
Prob 40% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Customer concentration (large accounts drive orders)
Cyclical semiconductor demand / customer inventory swings
Geopolitical / cross‑strait supply‑chain disruption
Margin pressure from input-cost or ASP declines

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AMKR	Large independent OSAT; comparable exposure to packaging/test cyclicality and end-market concentration.
TSM	Major foundry and large customer/partner whose demand profile helps set upstream capex and packaging volumes.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd ADR (ASX) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-02

AI Stock Memo: ASX - ASE - RankAlpha