B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ASX
ASEFNYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes stronger-than-expected recovery in packaging/test demand, higher utilization, and improved ASPs leading to margin expansion and re-rating toward the high analyst targets.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
Customer concentration (large accounts drive orders)
Momentum
88
Value
50
Sentiment
18
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $19.35 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-02-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $51.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +7.1
Value50 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment18 · Δ7d -3.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration (large accounts drive orders)
- • Cyclical semiconductor demand / customer inventory swings
- • Bear case assumes prolonged customer destocking, price pressure, or geopolitical disruption that compresses volumes and margins, pushing the ADR toward the analyst low.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-03
Quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+7.1
Δ21d
+20.7
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
18
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 88.0 / Value 50.1 / Sentiment 17.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$19.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$84.9B
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
2.2B
P/E (TTM)
33.3
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-42.25
Rev YoY
+23.8%
EPS YoY
+170.3%
Gross Margin
+18.6%
Op Margin
+9.9%
Net Debt
$5.2B
Current Ratio
1.07
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data