ASTS

AI Memo

AST SpaceMobile

As of 2026-03-03/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 / FY2026 earnings release • 2026-06-01

Expected move: +23%

Biggest risk

Missed commercialization timelines, larger-than-expected dilution, or regulatory setbacks compress valuation sharply, driving multiples materially below current pricing.

Invalidation

Break below $35 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful in-orbit tests, early paying customers, and a visible revenue ramp validate ASTS's in-space cellular-to-handset model and support >50% upside from the market anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-03

Base target

$78

p=50%

Bull target

$130

p=25%

Bear target

$35

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Regulatory / spectrum authorization updates
Satellite launch / in‑orbit test outcome
Financing / equity issuance risk

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory or spectrum allocation outcomes
Competition from established satellite operators or terrestrial substitutes
Execution delays for launches or in-orbit tests

WatchKey bullets

Q1 / FY2026 earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $78 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +105% / -45%

Vs latest close: Bull +105% · Base +23% · Bear -45%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $130 (p=25%)Base Target: $78 (p=50%)Bear Target: $35 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is mixed: analyst targets cluster both below and above the anchor, reflecting wide disagreement on execution and timing. The ~$30–$137 span signals binary event risk around commercialization milestones and elevated short-term volatility [#SERP-2] [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-03-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Successful in-orbit tests, early paying customers, and a visible revenue ramp validate ASTS's in-space cellular-to-handset model and support >50% upside from the market anchor.

Bear Case

Missed commercialization timelines, larger-than-expected dilution, or regulatory setbacks compress valuation sharply, driving multiples materially below current pricing.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Regulatory / spectrum authorization updates
Satellite launch / in‑orbit test outcome
Financing / equity issuance risk
Initial commercial service / first large customer rollout

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-03Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Below RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$69.59

Range (USD)

$30.00 - $137.00

Count

Query: AST SpaceMobile Inc Class A Common (ASTS) analyst consensus price target high low average

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
View More. Analyst Insights: ASTS. View More. Top Analyst. UBS. 75/100. Latest Rating. Neutral. Analyst Price Targets. 43.00 Low. 80.39 Average. 86.92 Current.
Open source
AST SpaceMobile Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $137.00. Median, $95.00. Low, $45.60. Average, $96.73. Current Price, $79.19. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. ASTS will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $137.00, $95.00, $45.60, $96.73, $79.19Open source
Ast Spacemobile (ASTS) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #3
According to projections from 8 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Ast Spacemobile is 80.388 USD, with a high estimate of 137 USD and a low ...
Extracted: $80.39, $137.00Open source
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class Analyst Forecasts - Quiver Quantitative
Search result #4
The median price target is $60.00 with a high estimate of $105.00 and a low estimate of $42.90. The median price target is a -24.23% change from the last price ...
Extracted: $60.00, $105.00, $42.90Open source
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock Price, News & Analysis - MarketBeat
Search result #5
Price Target and Rating. Average Price Target for AST SpaceMobile: $52.94. High Price Target: $95.00. Low Price Target: $30.00. Potential Upside/Downside: -39.1 ...
Extracted: $52.94, $95.00, $30.00Open source
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
Spread / Average Target. +1.51%. High Price Target. 137.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +73.00%. Low Price Target. 43.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. -45.70% ...
Extracted: $137.00, $43.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$130 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$78 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=25% prob

Price $63 as of 2026-07-21

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 23%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +105% · Base +23% · Bear -45%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-01
Q1 / FY2026 earnings release
Quarterly results and management commentary that could re-price expectations for commercial revenue and cash needs; timing estimated where no official date disclosed [#SERP-2].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Regulatory / spectrum authorization updates
2026-06-01
Decisions or clarifications from regulators (e.g., filings/approvals) that affect national roaming and use of spectrum; cite consensus coverage and analyst attention to regulatory path [#SERP-6].
Prob 50% • Move 12% • Priced-in 30%
Satellite launch / in‑orbit test outcome
2026-06-01
Outcome of planned launches or in-orbit performance tests that materially affect service viability and partner confidence (assumed window end if not explicitly dated).
Prob 55% • Move 20% • Priced-in 40%
Financing / equity issuance risk
2026-06-01
Need for incremental capital or dilution announcements that historically pressure small-cap space-tech names; reflected in near-term downside risk assumptions.
Prob 60% • Move 15% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Initial commercial service / first large customer rollout
2027-03-03
Milestone where in-orbit demonstrations convert to paying customers; date is an estimated end-of-window assumption for long-cycle deployment and commercialization.
Prob 40% • Move 60% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Adverse regulatory or spectrum allocation outcomes
Competition from established satellite operators or terrestrial substitutes
Execution delays for launches or in-orbit tests
Material dilution from equity financings

Peers

Symbol	Summary
IRDM	Iridium — established LEO-satellite voice/data operator with commercial service track record and roaming partnerships; useful operational comparator.
GSAT	Globalstar — smaller consumer/M2M satellite services operator facing similar commercialization and certification challenges.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: AST SpaceMobile Inc Class A Common (ASTS) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-03

AI Stock Memo: ASTS - AST SpaceMobile - RankAlpha