AI Stock Memo: ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors - RankAlpha

ASO

Rating buyAI Memo

Academy Sports and Outdoors

As of 2026-01-25/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst coverage/target updates • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +12%

Biggest risk

Bear case: weaker-than-expected discretionary demand, inventory markdowns, or promotional pressure compress margins, trigger guidance cuts, and push valuation toward the low analyst target.

Invalidation

Break below $50 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: stronger comps and margin expansion from inventory optimization and mix shift to e-commerce drive durable revenue growth and multiple expansion toward the high end of analyst targets.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-25

Base target

$59

p=60%

Bull target

$75

p=20%

Bear target

$50

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release
2026 seasonal/holiday sales cycle (FY comparison)
Bull case: stronger comps and margin expansion from inventory optimization and mix shift to e-commerce drive durable revenue growth and multiple expansion toward the high end of analyst targets.

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades or target cuts following weaker guidance or missed comps
Consumer discretionary slowdown that reduces traffic and same-store sales
Margin compression from freight costs, markdowns, or excess inventory

WatchKey bullets

Analyst coverage/target updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $59 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +42% / -5%

Vs latest close: Bull +42% · Base +12% · Bear -5%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $75 (p=20%)Base Target: $59 (p=60%)Bear Target: $50 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus median targets sit modestly above the anchor, implying limited near-term upside while coverage shows wide dispersion between lows and highs [#SERP-1][#SERP-4]. Short-term sentiment is concentrated on the upcoming quarterly print and seasonal sales cadence; a beat could re-rate shares while a miss would likely compress targets [#SERP-3]. Overall tone is cautiously constructive but highly execution-sensitive given inventory and margin risks [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-01-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: stronger comps and margin expansion from inventory optimization and mix shift to e-commerce drive durable revenue growth and multiple expansion toward the high end of analyst targets.

Bear Case

Bear case: weaker-than-expected discretionary demand, inventory markdowns, or promotional pressure compress margins, trigger guidance cuts, and push valuation toward the low analyst target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings release
2026 seasonal/holiday sales cycle (FY comparison)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$58.81

Range (USD)

$50.00 - $83.00

Count

Query: Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc Common (ASO) analyst consensus price target high low average

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to the 20 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Academy Sports and Outdoors, the average price target is $59.89. The highest price target for ...
Extracted: $59.89Open source
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #2
Academy Sports & Outdoors Inc has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $59.000000; an Industry Subrating of Low; a Management Subrating of Medium ...
Extracted: $59.00Open source
Consensus Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Last Close Price. 58.61USD. Average target price. 59.94USD. Spread / Average Target. +2.28%. High Price Target. 70.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +19.43%. Low ...
Extracted: $58.61, $59.94, $70.00Open source
ASO | Academy Sports & Outdoors Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings
Search result #4
Stock Price Target ASO. High, $70.00. Median, $59.00. Low, $50.00. Average, $59.94. Current Price, $57.03. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $70.00, $59.00, $50.00, $59.94, $57.03Open source
Academy Sports Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NASDAQ:ASO
Search result #5
Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc has a consensus price target of $60.48 based on the ratings of 21 analysts. The high is $83 issued by Wells Fargo on March ...
Extracted: $60.48, $83.00Open source
ASO Stock - Academy Sports and Outdoors - TipRanks
Search result #6
Academy Sports and Outdoors Stock Smart Score ; Analyst Consensus. Moderate Buy. Average Price Target: $57.00 (-2.35% Downside) ; Blogger Sentiment. Bullish. ASO ...
Extracted: $57.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$75 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$59 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$50 / p=20% prob

Price $53 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +42% · Base +12% · Bear -5%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Analyst coverage/target updates
Periodic revisions from coverage analysts (consensus spread from low to high noted) can re-price the stock; review of available targets shows a range investors watch [#SERP-1]. Date is an estimated mid-year update window end.
Prob 50.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings release
2026-04-25
Upcoming quarterly results can drive a 1–2 day volatility spike; market consensus/estimate references available analyst medians and targets [#SERP-4]. Date set conservatively in absence of a disclosed release date.
Prob 85% • Move 6% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

2026 seasonal/holiday sales cycle (FY comparison)
2027-01-25
Company performance across the peak selling season historically shapes full-year guidance and multiple reset risk; consensus targets imply modest upside vs. current price [#SERP-3]. Date is one year out as a conservative long-term window.
Prob 65% • Move 12% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Analyst downgrades or target cuts following weaker guidance or missed comps
Consumer discretionary slowdown that reduces traffic and same-store sales
Margin compression from freight costs, markdowns, or excess inventory
Share loss to larger omni-channel retailers and aggressive discounters

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DKS	Direct sporting-goods competitor with overlapping product mix and promotional cadence; useful for demand trend comparison.
ROST	Off-price/general apparel retailer; serves as a check on consumer apparel/discount demand and margin pressure dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc Common (ASO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-25