AS

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Amer Sports

As of 2026-05-19/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise on revenue, margins, and EPS • 2026-05-19

Expected move: +6%

Biggest risk

The easy part may be behind the stock: inventories rose 33% YoY, SG&A grew 33%–34%, Q2 operating margin guidance is only 6.0%–7.0%, and the FY guide assumes favorable FX plus tariff conditions that could change. If brand momentum slows or inventory builds prove persistent, operating leverage could stall.

Invalidation

Break below $29 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The Q1 print supports a positive but monitored update: revenue was up 32%, adjusted operating margin expanded 160 bps, and management raised FY26 sales, margin, and EPS guidance on the back of Arc'teryx, Salomon Softgoods, and Wilson Tennis 360. If those growth engines keep scaling, the stock can compound off a higher-margin base.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-19

Base target

$39

p=55%

Bull target

$48

p=25%

Bear target

$29

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Arc'teryx, Salomon Softgoods, and Wilson Tennis 360 still have runway
The Q1 print supports a positive but monitored update: revenue was up 32%, adjusted operating margin expanded 160 bps, and management raised FY26 sales, margin, and EPS guidance on the back of Arc'teryx, Salomon Softgoods, and Wilson Tennis 360.
If those growth engines keep scaling, the stock can compound off a higher-margin base.

BearKey bullets

Ball & Racquet adjusted operating margin fell to 3.6%, showing not every franchise is contributing equally.
FY2026 guidance assumes a 200–250 bps FX tailwind and that higher IEEPA tariff rates remain in place through 2Q and the rest of 2026.
Inventory growth (+33% YoY to $1.688B) may create working-capital pressure if sell-through slows.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise on revenue, margins, and EPS

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $39 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +31% / -21%

Vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +6% · Bear -21%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $48 (p=25%)Base Target: $39 (p=55%)Bear Target: $29 (p=20%)

Commentary

This is a T+1 post-earnings follow-up. The primary IR release on May 19, 2026 supports the beat-and-raise framing; a direct fetch of the IR page was attempted but blocked with HTTP 403, and an SEC directory retrieval for CIK 0001988894 succeeded but did not provide the May 19 filing text in the retrieved directory view. Recent news tone was positive around the Q1 beat and raised guidance, but analyst revision and target-change evidence remains unavailable in the first-day packet, so this remains a positive monitored setup rather than a fully digested rerating.

As of 2026-05-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Arc'teryx, Salomon Softgoods, and Wilson Tennis 360 still have runway

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$48 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$39 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=20% prob

Price $37 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +6% · Bear -21%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-19
Q1 2026 beat-and-raise on revenue, margins, and EPS
Amer Sports reported Q1 revenue of $1.945B (+32% reported, +26% constant currency), adjusted diluted EPS of $0.38, and raised FY2026 guidance for reported revenue growth to 20%–22%, gross margin to 59.0%–59.5%, operating margin to 13.4%–13.7%, and adjusted EPS to $1.18–$1.23. [#PR-2026Q1] https://investors.amersports.com/financial-news/news-details/2026/Amer-Sports-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-Raises-Full-Year-Revenue-Margin-and-EPS-Guidance/default.aspx
Prob 88.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Arc'teryx, Salomon Softgoods, and Wilson Tennis 360 still have runway
2026-08-19
Management said the three biggest growth engines are still relatively small franchises with significant room to expand, while Q1 showed 19% omni-comp growth in Technical Apparel and 42% growth in Outdoor Performance. That supports a multi-quarter growth and margin-compounding thesis if the brands keep taking share. [#PR-2026Q1]
Prob 68% • Move 7% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Ball & Racquet adjusted operating margin fell to 3.6%, showing not every franchise is contributing equally.
FY2026 guidance assumes a 200–250 bps FX tailwind and that higher IEEPA tariff rates remain in place through 2Q and the rest of 2026.
Inventory growth (+33% YoY to $1.688B) may create working-capital pressure if sell-through slows.
Q2 guidance implies a much lower operating margin than Q1, so the second-half ramp remains important.
SG&A rose 33%–34% in Q1, so margin expansion still depends on strong revenue leverage.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NKE	Direct operating benchmark for global athletic footwear/apparel demand, DTC mix, and brand-led margin leverage.
LULU	Premium athletic-apparel benchmark; useful for pricing power, DTC engagement, and margin sensitivity.
RL	Broader premium brand comp with less operating overlap, but still useful for consumer-brand pricing and mix context.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-19

AI Stock Memo: AS - Amer Sports - RankAlpha