AI Stock Memo: ARMK - Aramark - RankAlpha

ARMK

Rating buyAI Memo

Aramark

As of 2026-01-17/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025 Q4 / Full-year earnings release • 2026-02-28

Expected move: -17%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected contract renewals, margin pressure from labor/food inflation, and slower organic revenue growth leading to downside toward analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $33 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes continued margin recovery, successful contract wins and multiple expansion toward the high end of analyst targets, driven by operational leverage and enterprise-account growth.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-01-17

Base target

$44

p=60%

Bull target

$51

p=20%

Bear target

$33

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Operational cost savings program and margin improvement
Large contract renewals / new client wins
Bull case assumes continued margin recovery, successful contract wins and multiple expansion toward the high end of analyst targets, driven by operational leverage and enterprise-account growth.

BearKey bullets

Large contract losses or delayed renewals
Macroeconomic slowdown reducing corporate/campus catering demand
Rising labor and food input costs compressing margins

WatchKey bullets

FY2025 Q4 / Full-year earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $44 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -4% / -39%

Vs latest close: Bull -4% · Base -17% · Bear -39%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $51 (p=20%)Base Target: $44 (p=60%)Bear Target: $33 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is cautiously constructive: several analyst consensus pages show a modest buy tilt with median targets above the current price, implying measured upside [#SERP-2][#SERP-6]. Short-term focus centers on margin recovery and contract momentum, while longer-term sentiment hinges on execution on large account renewals [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-01-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes continued margin recovery, successful contract wins and multiple expansion toward the high end of analyst targets, driven by operational leverage and enterprise-account growth.

Bear Case

Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected contract renewals, margin pressure from labor/food inflation, and slower organic revenue growth leading to downside toward analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Operational cost savings program and margin improvement
Large contract renewals / new client wins

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-17Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$44.30

Range (USD)

$32.50 - $51.45

Count

Query: Aramark Common (ARMK) analyst consensus price target high low average

ARAMARK Holdings (ARMK) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #1
The average price target is $45.33 with a high forecast of $49.00 and a low forecast of $43.00. The average price target represents a 17.53% change from the ...
Extracted: $45.33, $49.00, $43.00Open source
Aramark: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #2
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 15 ; Last Close Price. 39.01USD ; Average target price. 44.60USD ; Spread / Average Target. +14.33%.
Extracted: $39.01, $44.60Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Aramark (ARMK)
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $42.00 to a high of $49.00. The average price target represents an increase of 18.3% from the last closing price of $38.36.
Extracted: $42.00, $49.00, $38.36Open source
ARMK Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Aramark
Search result #4
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARMK is 45.54 USD with a low forecast of 33.55 USD and a high forecast of 51.45 USD.
Extracted: $45.54, $33.55, $51.45Open source
ARMK - Aramark (NYSE) - Share Price and News - Fintel
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Aramark is $45.54. The forecasts range from a low of $33.55 to a high of $51.45. A stock's price target is the price ...
Extracted: $45.54, $33.55, $51.45Open source
Price Target & Analyst Coverage - Aramark (ARMK) - MLQ.ai
Search result #6
The consensus 12-month price target for Aramark (ARMK) is $45.00, based on analyst estimates. The highest price target is $46.00, while the lowest is $44.00, ...
Extracted: $45.00, $46.00, $44.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$51 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=20% prob

Price $53 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -4% · Base -17% · Bear -39%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-28
FY2025 Q4 / Full-year earnings release
Quarterly results and FY2026 guidance (assumed/reporting window end chosen conservatively) could re-rate shares if revenue/contract momentum exceeds consensus; assumed window end used for planning purposes [#SERP-1].
Prob 75.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Operational cost savings program and margin improvement
2026-04-17
Management's ongoing margin improvement initiatives could show sequential operating-leverage in the next quarter, improving EPS and near-term multiple; market consensus price targets suggest upside headroom vs. current price [#SERP-2].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Large contract renewals / new client wins
2027-01-17
Multi-year contract renewals or material new account wins would drive durable revenue growth and justify multiple expansion; several analyst models imply upside if service-margin recovery persists [#SERP-4].
Prob 40% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Large contract losses or delayed renewals
Macroeconomic slowdown reducing corporate/campus catering demand
Rising labor and food input costs compressing margins

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Aramark Common (ARMK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-17