AMPH

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Amphastar

As of 2026-05-09/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 earnings reset near-term expectations after profit and margin compression • 2026-05-31

Expected move: +19%

Biggest risk

The bearish read is that flat revenue masked a much weaker earnings profile, with BAQSIMI and glucagon under pricing and volume pressure, gross margin down sharply, and no strong guidance or visible analyst-revision support available by May 9, 2026.

Invalidation

Break below $16 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bullish read is that the quarter showed commercial support from newer products and the Ipratropium Bromide HFA launch, while the stock's sharp post-earnings decline leaves room for recovery if margin pressure proves transitory and newer products continue scaling.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-09

Base target

$22

p=45%

Bull target

$27

p=25%

Bear target

$16

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Recent launches must prove they can offset BAQSIMI and glucagon erosion
Pipeline and licensing activity add optionality but raise execution demands
The bullish read is that the quarter showed commercial support from newer products and the Ipratropium Bromide HFA launch, while the stock's sharp post-earnings decline leaves room for recovery if margin pressure proves transitory and newer products continue scaling.

BearKey bullets

Glucagon revenue fell 56% and BAQSIMI revenue fell 15%, showing ongoing competition and unfavorable gross-to-net dynamics in important products.
Gross margin fell to 41.1% from 50.0% as lower prices on higher-margin products and higher manufacturing expenses weighed on profitability.
Long-term debt remained substantial at about $609.8 million net of current portion and issuance costs, limiting flexibility if earnings pressure persists.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 earnings reset near-term expectations after profit and margin compression

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $22 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +46% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +46% · Base +19% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $27 (p=25%)Base Target: $22 (p=45%)Bear Target: $16 (p=30%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone turned cautious. The company confirmed results on May 7, 2026, and by the latest available market print on May 9, 2026 UTC, AMPH was about $19.00 versus the packet's May 7 close anchor of $24.03, a drop of roughly 21%, indicating the market focused on profit and margin deterioration rather than flat revenue. Trusted analyst rating or target revisions were not available in the checked evidence, so this remains a low-coverage monitoring situation rather than a high-conviction reset.

As of 2026-05-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Recent launches must prove they can offset BAQSIMI and glucagon erosion
Pipeline and licensing activity add optionality but raise execution demands

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=30% prob

Price $18 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +46% · Base +19% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.35

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-31
Q1 earnings reset near-term expectations after profit and margin compression
First-quarter 2026 revenue was essentially flat at $171.2 million, but GAAP EPS fell to $0.14 from $0.51 and gross margin declined to 41.1% from 50.0% as lower pricing on higher-margin products and higher manufacturing costs pressured profitability; with no clear 2026 outlook in the filing set, post-print sentiment is likely to stay cautious while investors assess whether the selloff already discounts the weaker quarter [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 90.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 75.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Recent launches must prove they can offset BAQSIMI and glucagon erosion
2026-12-31
Management highlighted approval and launch of Ipratropium Bromide HFA, while other products revenue rose 34% helped by albuterol, iron sucrose, teriparatide, and dextrose; however BAQSIMI sales fell 15% and glucagon dropped 56%, so the core debate is whether newer products can sustainably replace declining legacy profit pools [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 60% • Move 15% • Priced-in 50%
Pipeline and licensing activity add optionality but raise execution demands
2027-06-30
R&D expense increased 33% year over year, driven by insulin, inhalation, and proprietary pipeline spending, and included a $2.0 million upfront payment tied to the Hanxin licensing agreement; that supports longer-term optionality, but near-term monetization is uncertain and spend discipline matters given the weak quarter [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 45% • Move 18% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Glucagon revenue fell 56% and BAQSIMI revenue fell 15%, showing ongoing competition and unfavorable gross-to-net dynamics in important products.
Gross margin fell to 41.1% from 50.0% as lower prices on higher-margin products and higher manufacturing expenses weighed on profitability.
Long-term debt remained substantial at about $609.8 million net of current portion and issuance costs, limiting flexibility if earnings pressure persists.
No clear 2026 outlook or guidance update was identified in the company filing set, reducing forward visibility after a weak quarter.
R&D rose 33% year over year, including spending on insulin, inhalation, proprietary programs, and licensing, which can pressure earnings if launches and pipeline milestones slip.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CDNA	CareDx is a closer small-cap healthcare valuation comp than an operating comp; it helps frame risk appetite for the group, but product and reimbursement exposure differ materially from Amphastar's portfolio.
OMER	Omeros is another small-cap biopharma name with event-driven sentiment, but it is not a direct commercial peer to Amphastar's mixed generic and proprietary product base.
BLFS	BioLife Solutions is mainly a market-cap comp; it reinforces that Amphastar's direct peer set is loose, which lowers confidence in relative-valuation conclusions.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-09

AI Stock Memo: AMPH - Amphastar - RankAlpha