B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMPH
AmphastarBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed 5% revenue growth, 8% gross-profit growth, 50.8% gross margin, successful Ipratropium launch, and continued growth from newer products. The approximately 4.8% move versus the prior close suggests the market initially viewed the print favorably.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Competition pressured epinephrine and glucagon, while the BAQSIMI milestone triggers a $100 million payment to Lilly in Q3 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
96
Value
69
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $17.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.50
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d +1.8
Value69 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment43 · Δ7d +1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Competition pressured epinephrine and glucagon, while the BAQSIMI milestone triggers a $100 million payment to Lilly in Q3 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Forward visibility remains limited because post-earnings analyst revisions and detailed transcript digestion were unavailable.
- • Adjusted EPS declined year over year in Q2 and first-half adjusted EPS fell to $1.33 from $1.59.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 2026 results modestly exceeded pre-release expectations
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+3.6
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-7.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 95.8 / Value 68.8 / Sentiment 42.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$1.08B
Beta
0.87
Shares Out
42.54M
P/E (TTM)
11.8
P/S (TTM)
1.70
P/FCF (TTM)
11.06
Rev YoY
+5.4%
EPS YoY
+6.4%
Gross Margin
+45.6%
Op Margin
+15.7%
Net Debt
$370.76M
Current Ratio
2.40
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data