AM

AI Memo

Antero Midstream

As of 2026-02-13/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Natural gas / NGL price swing • 2026-05-14

Base target: $19 / p=55% prob

Biggest risk

Persistent weakness in commodity realizations or a distribution cut would compress cash flows and multiples, producing downside below analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $17 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Steady or improving natural gas/NGL prices, stable distributions and modest multiple expansion drive upside; successful capital-markets activity or accretive M&A could push value above current levels but upside is limited absent clear idiosyncratic execution.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-13

Base target

$19

p=55%

Bull target

$23

p=20%

Bear target

$17

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly results & distribution announcement
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Capital-markets action (re-rate / buyout / refinancing)

BearKey bullets

Adverse capital-markets conditions increasing refinancing costs
Distribution cut or guidance reduction
Operational incident reducing throughput

WatchKey bullets

Natural gas / NGL price swing

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $19 (p=55%)

Target spread vs base: +20% / -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $23 (p=20%)Base Target: $19 (p=55%)Bear Target: $17 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market consensus centers on a mid-to-high‑teens target range with limited upside to the current anchor; coverage shows a cluster of targets around $19.00–$20.44, implying mixed conviction [#SERP-3][#SERP-4]. Short-term sentiment is sensitive to distribution guidance and commodity moves, producing neutral-to-cautious tone among analysts [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-02-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Persistent weakness in commodity realizations or a distribution cut would compress cash flows and multiples, producing downside below analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly results & distribution announcement
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Capital-markets action (re-rate / buyout / refinancing)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$19.17

Range (USD)

$17.00 - $20.44

Count

Query: Antero Midstream Corp Common (AM) analyst consensus price target high low average

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
Find the latest Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Antero Resources Consensus Estimates (AM) - Investing.com NG
Search result #2
Antero Midstream has a potential Upside of +1.93%, based on analysts' average price target. How Has Antero Midstream Stock Performed Over the Past 52 Weeks?
Open source
ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORP (AM) Stock Analyst Ratings - Chartmill
Search result #3
16 analysts have analysed AM and the average price target is 19.13 USD. This implies a price increase of 5.93% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $19.13Open source
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Price Targets - Zacks
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $17.00 to a high of $20.00. The average price target represents a decline of 7.05% from the last closing price of $20.44.
Extracted: $17.00, $20.00, $20.44Open source
Antero Midstream (AM) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #5
According to the 5 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Antero Midstream, the average price target is $19.17. The highest price target for AM is $20.00, ...
Extracted: $19.17, $20.00Open source
Antero Midstream (AM) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts ...
Search result #6
The average price target is $19.67 with a high forecast of $20.00 and a low forecast of $19.00. The average price target represents a 2.55% change from the last ...
Extracted: $19.67, $20.00, $19.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-14
Natural gas / NGL price swing
Significant moves in natural gas or NGL prices can materially change distributable cash flow and valuation; midstream cash flows remain commodity-sensitive despite fee-based contracts [#SERP-6][#SERP-3].
Prob 30.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly results & distribution announcement
2026-05-14
Routine Q1 results and distribution declaration; market watches cash available for distribution and guidance for 2026 — likely near-term volatility on payout commentary [#SERP-4][#SERP-7].
Prob 90% • Move 5% • Priced-in 70%
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
2026-05-14
Periodic analyst model updates can shift the consensus range (current published targets cluster around the high-teens to low-20s) and prompt short-term revaluation [#SERP-3][#SERP-4].
Prob 40% • Move 4% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital-markets action (re-rate / buyout / refinancing)
2027-02-13
Possible re-rating from financing, asset sale or strategic transaction that would re-price the equity relative to peers; timing uncertain but typically longer-term [#SERP-3][#SERP-5].
Prob 20% • Move 15% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Adverse capital-markets conditions increasing refinancing costs
Distribution cut or guidance reduction
Operational incident reducing throughput
Sustained natural gas / NGL price decline

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MPLX	Midstream with fee-based contracts and retail distribution focus; comparable distribution sensitivity.
EPD	Large, diversified midstream with broad liquids/gas assets — useful operational benchmark.
PAA	Plains All American — pipeline/storage peer with exposure to liquids volumes and cash-flow variability.
ET	Energy Transfer — larger-scale competitor with integrated logistics and capital-markets access.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Antero Midstream Corp Common (AM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-13

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Symbol

Summary

MPLX

Midstream with fee-based contracts and retail distribution focus; comparable distribution sensitivity.

EPD

Large, diversified midstream with broad liquids/gas assets — useful operational benchmark.

PAA

Plains All American — pipeline/storage peer with exposure to liquids volumes and cash-flow variability.

Energy Transfer — larger-scale competitor with integrated logistics and capital-markets access.