ALK

Rating buyAI Memo

Alaska Air Group

As of 2026-02-04/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Jet fuel cost shock • 2026-05-05

Expected move: +41%

Biggest risk

Bear case: demand weakness, fuel inflation, or labor/operational setbacks compress yields and margins, pushing valuation below the anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $45 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: sustained leisure and corporate demand, controlled capacity growth, and stable fuel costs drive margin expansion and multiple re-rating toward the upper analyst range.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-04

Base target

$65

p=70%

Bull target

$99

p=15%

Bear target

$45

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2025 / Q4 earnings and guidance
Peak travel season & capacity execution
Bull case: sustained leisure and corporate demand, controlled capacity growth, and stable fuel costs drive margin expansion and multiple re-rating toward the upper analyst range.

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on capacity and route planning
Jet fuel spikes increasing unit costs
Labor negotiations or strikes disrupting operations

WatchKey bullets

Jet fuel cost shock

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $65 (p=70%)

Bull/Bear spread: +114% / -2%

Vs latest close: Bull +114% · Base +41% · Bear -2%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $99 (p=15%)Base Target: $65 (p=70%)Bear Target: $45 (p=15%)

Commentary

Consensus targets skew above the anchor, indicating cautious optimism, but analyst dispersion is wide. Near-term sentiment is earnings- and fuel-driven; medium-term tone depends on demand normalization and cost control [#SERP-2][#SERP-6].

As of 2026-02-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: sustained leisure and corporate demand, controlled capacity growth, and stable fuel costs drive margin expansion and multiple re-rating toward the upper analyst range.

Bear Case

Bear case: demand weakness, fuel inflation, or labor/operational setbacks compress yields and margins, pushing valuation below the anchor.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2025 / Q4 earnings and guidance
Peak travel season & capacity execution

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-04Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$64.87

Range (USD)

$50.50 - $98.70

Count

Query: Alaska Air Group Inc Common (ALK) analyst consensus price target high low average

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Stock Price, News, Quote
Search result #1
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $54.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Low; a Safety ...
Extracted: $54.00Open source
Alaska Air Group, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 15 ; Last Close Price. 50.83USD ; Average target price. 70.80USD ; Spread / Average Target. +39.29%.
Extracted: $50.83, $70.80Open source
Alaska Air (ALK) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The highest analyst price target is $94.00 ,the lowest forecast is $63.00. The average price target represents 43.97% Increase from the current price of $50.83 ...
Extracted: $94.00, $63.00, $50.83Open source
Alaska Air (ALK) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #4
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Alaska Air is 70.80, with a high estimate of 94 and a low estimate of 60. What ...
Open source
ALK Stock Forecast - Alaska Air Group Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALK is 70.21 USD with a low forecast of 50.5 USD and a high forecast of 98.7 USD.
Extracted: $70.21, $50.50, $98.70Open source
Alaska Air Group Inc. Analyst Estimates - ALK
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $94.00. Median, $70.00. Low, $60.00. Average, $70.80. Current Price, $53.30. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. ALK will report 2026 earnings ...
Extracted: $94.00, $70.00, $60.00, $70.80, $53.30Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$99 / p=15% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$65 / p=70% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=15% prob

Price $46 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +114% · Base +41% · Bear -2%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-05
Jet fuel cost shock
Sustained jet-fuel increases materially compress unit margins and earnings; monitor fuel curve and hedge posture through the spring window [#SERP-2].
Prob 55.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2025 / Q4 earnings and guidance
2026-05-05
Quarterly results and guidance are the fastest re-rating trigger; investors will focus on unit revenue, margin trends, and fuel guidance [#SERP-6].
Prob 85% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Peak travel season & capacity execution
2027-02-04
Summer 2026 demand and ALK’s capacity execution (routes, utilization) will determine revenue capture into the 12‑month view; outperformance could drive material re-rating [#SERP-5].
Prob 65% • Move 20% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Execution risk on capacity and route planning
Jet fuel spikes increasing unit costs
Labor negotiations or strikes disrupting operations
Macro-driven demand downturn reducing yields

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AAL	American Airlines — scale and domestic exposure provide context for capacity and fare dynamics versus ALK's regional/West-coast focus.
DAL	Delta — diversified network and corporate exposure offer a benchmark for premium demand resilience and margin recovery.
LUV	Southwest — domestic low-cost operator; useful comparator for price sensitivity and ancillary revenue trends.
UAL	United — hub complexity and international exposure offer downside comparisons for labor and operational risk.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Alaska Air Group Inc Common (ALK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-04

AI Stock Memo: ALK - Alaska Air Group - RankAlpha