AI Stock Memo: AJG - Arthur J Gallagher - RankAlpha

AJG

Rating buyAI Memo

Arthur J Gallagher

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025/Q4 earnings (assumed) • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +49%

Biggest risk

Weak premium growth, reserve or catastrophe shocks, or acquisition setbacks compress margins and push shares toward low analyst targets.

Invalidation

Break below $247 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Accretive acquisitions, margin expansion, and multiple uplift drive AJG toward premium broker valuations; sustained organic growth and successful integration could realize the bull target within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$300

p=60%

Bull target

$360

p=20%

Bear target

$247

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

M&A / roll-up execution
Sector re-rating / multiple expansion
Accretive acquisitions, margin expansion, and multiple uplift drive AJG toward premium broker valuations; sustained organic growth and successful integration could realize the bull target within 12 months.

BearKey bullets

Acquisition integration failure or execution shortfall
Commercial-insurance pricing weakness compressing margins
Reserve/catastrophe losses or macro slowdown reducing fee growth

WatchKey bullets

FY2025/Q4 earnings (assumed)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $300 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +79% / +23%

Vs latest close: Bull +79% · Base +49% · Bear +23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $360 (p=20%)Base Target: $300 (p=60%)Bear Target: $247 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus tone is cautiously constructive: median analyst targets exceed the current price, implying upside, but wide high/low dispersion signals meaningful execution and loss-cycle risk. Near-term focus is earnings and M&A.

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Weak premium growth, reserve or catastrophe shocks, or acquisition setbacks compress margins and push shares toward low analyst targets.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

M&A / roll-up execution
Sector re-rating / multiple expansion

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$299.63

Range (USD)

$247.00 - $407.40

Count

Query: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co Common (AJG) analyst consensus price target high low average

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #1
Gallagher & Co., the average price target is $290.50. The highest price target for AJG is $352.00, while the lowest price target for AJG is $247.00.
Extracted: $290.50, $352.00, $247.00Open source
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Gallagher (AJG) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates ... Analyst Insights: AJG. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 247.00. 292.33 Average.
Open source
Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The average price target is $285.46 with a high forecast of $334.00 and a low forecast of $247.00. The average price target represents a 17.78% change from the ...
Extracted: $285.46, $334.00, $247.00Open source
AJG Stock Forecast - Arthur J Gallagher & Co - Alpha Spread
Search result #4
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AJG is 305.69 USD with a low forecast of 249.47 USD and a high forecast of 407.4 USD.
Extracted: $305.69, $249.47, $407.40Open source
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #5
The forecasts for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) range from a low of $247 to a high of $388. The average price target represents a increase of $22.56 from the ...
Extracted: $247.00, $388.00, $22.56Open source
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO (AJG) Stock Analyst Ratings - Chartmill
Search result #6
27 analysts have analysed AJG and the average price target is 305.69 USD. This implies a price increase of 20.73% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $305.69Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$360 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$300 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$247 / p=20% prob

Price $201 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 23%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +79% · Base +49% · Bear +23%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
FY2025/Q4 earnings (assumed)
Quarterly results and guidance can move the stock; conservative window-end date used. Key sensitivity: underwriting margins and fee income.
Prob 80.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

M&A / roll-up execution
2026-04-30
An accretive acquisition or integration surprise could trigger a near-term re-rating; failure would hurt sentiment.
Prob 40% • Move 15% • Priced-in 20%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sector re-rating / multiple expansion
2027-01-30
Sustained revenue growth, margin improvement, or broader multiple expansion could unlock longer-term upside.
Prob 45% • Move 30% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Acquisition integration failure or execution shortfall
Commercial-insurance pricing weakness compressing margins
Reserve/catastrophe losses or macro slowdown reducing fee growth

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AON	Global broker with diversified consulting — useful comp for distribution and advisory trends.
BRO	Brown & Brown: acquisitive regional broker — operationally similar on roll-up strategy.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co Common (AJG) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30