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AJG

Arthur J GallagherB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The operating thesis remains constructive: strong organic growth, particularly in Risk Management, solid retention and new business, sustained adjusted EBITDAC growth, and ongoing acquisition integration support multi-year compounding. A July 15 report said Piper Sandler upgraded AJG to Overweight and raised its target to $276 from $225 before the print; post-print revisions were not confirmed.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Acquisition cadence and AssuredPartners integration may underdeliver relative to the growth thesis.
Momentum
71
Value
54
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $285.00 · Bull $310.00 · Bear $220.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $295.00
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d -3.5
Value54 · Δ7d +8.3
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +13.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acquisition cadence and AssuredPartners integration may underdeliver relative to the growth thesis.
  • • Brokerage margin compression from lower interest income, AssuredPartners seasonality and acquired-business mix.
  • • The Q2 revenue miss, 280-basis-point Brokerage margin contraction, lower interest income, reduced acquisition volume and high corporate borrowings weaken near-term visibility.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Q2 2026 earnings were mixed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
71
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
+9.3
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
+8.3
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.3
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 71.3 / Value 53.6 / Sentiment 72.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$310.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$63.55B
Beta
0.66
Shares Out
256.3M
P/E (TTM)
41.9
P/S (TTM)
5.19
P/FCF (TTM)
59.51
Rev YoY
+24.3%
EPS YoY
-10.8%
Gross Margin
+90.4%
Op Margin
+17.1%
Net Debt
$12.07B
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data