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AJG

Arthur J GallagherC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The operating thesis remains constructive: strong organic growth, particularly in Risk Management, solid retention and new business, sustained adjusted EBITDAC growth, and ongoing acquisition integration support multi-year compounding. A July 15 report said Piper Sandler upgraded AJG to Overweight and raised its target to $276 from $225 before the print; post-print revisions were not confirmed.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Acquisition cadence and AssuredPartners integration may underdeliver relative to the growth thesis.
Momentum
59
Value
45
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $285.00 · Bull $310.00 · Bear $220.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
57 · Near miss
Next 2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $285.33
Why
Momentum59 · Δ7d +25.6
Value45 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -5.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
57Near miss2026-10-29 amc
View setup

AJG showed strong recent price action, including a high-close, higher-volume session on Oct. 22, and Q2 revenue growth provides a business-momentum tailwind. However, the checked sources did not establish a positive current EPS revision/ESP/whisper gap or a positive revenue revision/upside versus consensus; without the required estimate signal, the tape alone is not enough for a qualifying pre-earnings setup.

Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 57 / near miss.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acquisition cadence and AssuredPartners integration may underdeliver relative to the growth thesis.
  • • Brokerage margin compression from lower interest income, AssuredPartners seasonality and acquired-business mix.
  • • The Q2 revenue miss, 280-basis-point Brokerage margin contraction, lower interest income, reduced acquisition volume and high corporate borrowings weaken near-term visibility.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Q2 2026 earnings were mixed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
59
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+25.6
Δ21d
+36.6
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.8
Δ21d
-30.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 59.1 / Value 45.0 / Sentiment 57.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$310.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$68.7B
Beta
0.66
Shares Out
256.3M
P/E (TTM)
41.9
P/S (TTM)
5.19
P/FCF (TTM)
59.51
Rev YoY
+24.3%
EPS YoY
-10.8%
Gross Margin
+90.4%
Op Margin
+17.1%
Net Debt
$12.07B
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data