AI Stock Memo: AGI - Alamos Gold - RankAlpha

AGI

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

Alamos Gold

As of 2026-03-31/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

high-coverage catalyst set is still too generic or cadence-driven; high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence; peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results and management commentary (earnings) • 2026-04-29

Expected move: +31%

Biggest risk

Inflationary cost pressure, higher royalties and any delay/underperformance at Island Gold or Mulatos compress margins and force downward guidance revisions, removing the re-rating catalyst.

Invalidation

Break below $36 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Island Gold expansion and multi-year guidance execution drives material production growth and margin expansion; re-rating toward peer multiples as free cash flow rises and leverage to higher gold prices compounds.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-31

Base target

$52

p=50%

Bull target

$78

p=30%

Bear target

$36

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Updated three-year operating guidance: production growth to 2028
Island Gold expansion and multi-year guidance execution drives material production growth and margin expansion; re-rating toward peer multiples as free cash flow rises and leverage to higher gold prices compounds.
ANCHOR: {"price": 42.54, "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-27T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst median ~52.24 supports our base 52 target; consensus mean/median (≈$52) implies ~22% upside from current levels and shows room for upside if expansion economics and AISC improvements materialize [#SERP-1].

BearKey bullets

AISC inflation and royalty cost pressure
Execution risk on Island Gold district expansion and timing
Metals price volatility (gold) affecting revenue/cashflow

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 results and management commentary (earnings)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $52 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +97% / -9%

Vs latest close: Bull +97% · Base +31% · Bear -9%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $78 (p=30%)Base Target: $52 (p=50%)Bear Target: $36 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive following the company’s Feb guidance and filings; investors are parsing the production growth story versus higher near-term AISC expectations [#PR-2026-02-04]. Short-term focus centers on the upcoming Q1 earnings for confirmation of 2026 trajectory [#PR-2026-01-14].

As of 2026-03-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Inflationary cost pressure, higher royalties and any delay/underperformance at Island Gold or Mulatos compress margins and force downward guidance revisions, removing the re-rating catalyst.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Updated three-year operating guidance: production growth to 2028

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-31Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$52.24

Range (USD)

$42.51 - $90.00

Count

Query: Alamos Gold Inc Common (AGI) analyst consensus price target high low average

Alamos Gold Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 13 ; Last Close Price. 42.51USD ; Average target price. 58.43USD ; Spread / Average Target. +37.46%.
Extracted: $42.51, $58.43Open source
AGI Stock Forecast - Alamos Gold Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGI is 77.45 CAD with a low forecast of 66.32 CAD and a high forecast of 94.5 CAD. What ...
Open source
Alamos Gold Inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (AGI)
Search result #4
... consensus 'Buy' rating and an average analyst price target of ~$45.50. 26 ... stock closed well below its consensus analyst price target of $45.50.
Extracted: $45.50Open source
Alamos Gold (AGI) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #6
Financial analysts have set a price target of $44.33, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $44.33Open source
AGI Analyst Ratings for Alamos Gold Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #7
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Strong Buy. 4.69. Based on 13 analysts.
Open source
AGI / Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target, Estimates ...
Search result #8
The average one-year price target for Alamos Gold Inc. is $56.54. The forecasts range from a low of $48.42 to a high of $68.99. Read More.
Extracted: $56.54, $48.42, $68.99Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$78 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=20% prob

Price $40 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +97% · Base +31% · Bear -9%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-29
Q1 2026 results and management commentary (earnings)
Upcoming Q1 2026 earnings (expected 2026-04-29) will provide operational/financial confirmation of 2026 guidance trajectory, AISC progression and Island Gold expansion assumptions; market reaction likely if results diverge from the updated three‑year plan [#PR-2026-01-14] (earnings date per company calendar/media notices).
Prob 65.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Updated three-year operating guidance: production growth to 2028
2026-02-04
Company published three-year operating guidance projecting production to rise ~46% by 2028 (2026 guidance: production +12%; 2028 target 755k–835k oz) and noted higher 2026 AISC assumptions tied to inflation and royalties, creating a multi-year production/cost trajectory investors can model [#PR-2026-02-04].
Prob 75% • Move 25% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

AISC inflation and royalty cost pressure
Execution risk on Island Gold district expansion and timing
Metals price volatility (gold) affecting revenue/cashflow

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NEM	Newmont — large-scale North American-focused gold producer; useful operating comparator for multi-mine production growth and AISC trajectory.
GOLD	Barrick Gold — diversified large-cap gold producer; comparator for district expansion economics and reserve/life-cycle disclosures.
KGC	Kinross Gold — mid-cap producer with recent growth projects; comparative lens for capex-to-production ramp and AISC sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Alamos Gold Inc Common (AGI) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-31