B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGI
Alamos GoldBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record Island Gold production, strong free cash flow and the shaft/mill expansion provide a credible multi-year growth path with potentially lower unit costs [#PR-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.8.
What can break
2026 production guidance is materially below the prior 570,000–650,000-ounce range.
Momentum
77
Value
59
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.50 · Bull $47.30 · Bear $29.50Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $47.37
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d +7.6
Value59 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -13.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 production guidance is materially below the prior 570,000–650,000-ounce range.
- • Higher mining, labour and contractor costs could keep AISC elevated.
- • The near-term thesis is impaired by the Young-Davidson seismic event, reduced 2026 production guidance and higher expected costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-29
Q2 2026 results reset the operating outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
+46.0
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+4.2
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.8
Δ21d
-25.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 77.4 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 67.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$14.24B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
418.6M
P/E (TTM)
30.8
P/S (TTM)
10.24
P/FCF (TTM)
78.58
Rev YoY
+35.6%
EPS YoY
+70.0%
Gross Margin
+60.1%
Op Margin
+56.6%
Net Debt
-$459M
Current Ratio
1.78
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data