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AGI

Alamos GoldB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Island Gold delivered record Q2 production of 67,500 ounces, and Alamos generated $143.5 million of Q2 free cash flow. Successful shaft and mill execution could improve production and costs beyond 2026.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
What can break
Gold-price sensitivity and project execution risk could make the $30.30 price anchor and scenario targets stale.
Momentum
34
Value
59
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $23.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.91
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d -11.4
Value59 · Δ7d +1.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -20.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gold-price sensitivity and project execution risk could make the $30.30 price anchor and scenario targets stale.
  • • Labour, contractor and energy costs, plus expansion capital requirements, could offset higher production. [#PR-2026-07-29]
  • • Young-Davidson disruption and delayed recovery of ounces at La Yaqui Grande drove a reduction in 2026 production guidance and an increase in AISC guidance.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28

Q3 results test revised production and cost guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
34
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.4
Δ21d
-21.8
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
+1.4
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-20.7
Δ21d
-28.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 33.5 / Value 59.0 / Sentiment 58.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$12.54B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
418.6M
P/E (TTM)
30.8
P/S (TTM)
10.24
P/FCF (TTM)
78.58
Rev YoY
+35.6%
EPS YoY
+70.0%
Gross Margin
+60.1%
Op Margin
+56.6%
Net Debt
-$459M
Current Ratio
1.78
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data