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AFYA

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Afya

As of 2026-05-09/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 print showed revenue growth, strong cash generation, and unchanged 2026 guidance • 2026-05-07

Base target: $15 / p=45% prob

Biggest risk

The bear read is that growth is still being bought with heavier investment in Continuing Education and Medical Practice Solutions, EBITDA margin fell 200 bps YoY, monthly active users declined, and there was no strong T+3 evidence of analysts materially upgrading the story after the print.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull read is straightforward: the core medical-education business still appears durable, 1Q26 revenue and EBITDA grew, cash conversion stayed strong, net debt ex-IFRS 16 fell, and full-year guidance was reaffirmed [#6K-2026-05-07].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-09

Base target

$15

p=45%

Bull target

$17

p=25%

Bear target

$12

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Muted post-earnings reaction leaves little evidence of a near-term rerating
Undergraduate intake strength can keep the core franchise carrying the story
The post-earnings bull read is straightforward: the core medical-education business still appears durable, 1Q26 revenue and EBITDA grew, cash conversion stayed strong, net debt ex-IFRS 16 fell, and full-year guidance was reaffirmed [#6K-2026-05-07].

BearKey bullets

Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 50.5% from 52.5% as spending increased in Continuing Education and Medical Practice Solutions [#6K-2026-05-07].
Forward visibility remains limited because verified post-print analyst revisions and direct peer triangulation were sparse as of 2026-05-09.
Medical Practice Solutions monthly active users fell 9.8% YoY to 220,528 even as Clinical Management active payers increased, creating mixed engagement signals [#6K-2026-05-07].

WatchKey bullets

Q1 print showed revenue growth, strong cash generation, and unchanged 2026 guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $15 (p=45%)

Target spread vs base: +8% / -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=25%)Base Target: $15 (p=45%)Bear Target: $12 (p=30%)

Commentary

News tone improved on the May 7 earnings release, but the setup still looks cautious rather than emphatically bullish. The company supplied a solid primary-source print, while external follow-through was light: no clearly verified T+3 analyst target-reset was found, and the immediate stock reaction was muted, with Yahoo chart data showing AFYA closing at about $13.91 on 2026-05-07 and $13.93 on 2026-05-08. Given low evidence-quality and thin revision visibility, sentiment is best framed as stable-to-slightly positive monitoring rather than a confirmed rerating.

As of 2026-05-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Muted post-earnings reaction leaves little evidence of a near-term rerating
Undergraduate intake strength can keep the core franchise carrying the story

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.18

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
Q1 print showed revenue growth, strong cash generation, and unchanged 2026 guidance
Afya's May 7 Form 6-K earnings release reported 1Q26 revenue of R$1,012.7 million (+8.2% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of R$511.4 million (+4.0%), operating cash conversion of 92.5%, and reaffirmed 2026 guidance of R$3.95-4.10 billion revenue and R$1.70-1.80 billion adjusted EBITDA [#6K-2026-05-07].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Muted post-earnings reaction leaves little evidence of a near-term rerating
2026-05-20
The first post-release session was essentially flat versus the May 7 anchor, and no clearly verified post-print target raises or estimate upgrades were found by May 9, keeping this more of a monitoring setup than a momentum rerating.
Prob 65% • Move -6% • Priced-in 68%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Undergraduate intake strength can keep the core franchise carrying the story
2026-12-31
Management said medical schools maintained 100% occupancy and delivered a 4.6% YoY increase in medical-school net average ticket ex-acquisitions, while revenue also benefited from seat maturation and FUNIC; if that core engine persists, it can offset slower monetization elsewhere [#6K-2026-05-07].
Prob 62% • Move 10% • Priced-in 42%

Risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 50.5% from 52.5% as spending increased in Continuing Education and Medical Practice Solutions [#6K-2026-05-07].
Forward visibility remains limited because verified post-print analyst revisions and direct peer triangulation were sparse as of 2026-05-09.
Medical Practice Solutions monthly active users fell 9.8% YoY to 220,528 even as Clinical Management active payers increased, creating mixed engagement signals [#6K-2026-05-07].
Net income growth was partly offset by an additional CSLL provision related to the OECD Pillar Two global minimum tax [#6K-2026-05-07].

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-09

AI Stock Memo: AFYA - Afya - RankAlpha