RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

AFYA

AfyaB
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The signed merger and shareholder voting commitments improve transaction specificity, while medical-school pricing, student growth and cash generation support the operating case. [#PR-2026-09-23] Afya SEC-filed announcement [#PR-2026-08-13] Afya SEC-filed results
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Authorized medical seats may not translate promptly into occupied seats or revenue.
Momentum
90
Value
70
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.02
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +27.6
Value70 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Authorized medical seats may not translate promptly into occupied seats or revenue.
  • • First-half adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 190 basis points, and 2026 guidance assumes successful second-semester student intake. [#PR-2026-08-13] Afya SEC-filed results
  • • Regulatory or shareholder rejection, a weaker Yduqs share price or BRL, and continued margin compression could outweigh operating growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

2026 guidance and margin delivery

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
90
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+27.6
Δ21d
+47.7
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-29.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 90.1 / Value 70.0 / Sentiment 34.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
35%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.38B
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
91.45M
P/E (TTM)
10.2
P/S (TTM)
2.11
P/FCF (TTM)
6.28
Rev YoY
+18.6%
EPS YoY
+30.7%
Gross Margin
+64.0%
Op Margin
+32.5%
Net Debt
$364M
Current Ratio
2.20
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data