Base case: $160 (p=50%)
Target spread vs base: +12% / -25%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $179 (p=30%)Base Target: $160 (p=50%)Bear Target: $119 (p=20%)
Commentary
AerCap's July 29 company release, retrieved from its SEC-filed Form 6-K exhibit, confirms the constructive operating evidence: raised 2026 guidance, improved net spread, strong asset-sale gains and substantial repurchases. [#SEC-6K-2026-07-29] However, no quantified 30-day news score, sufficiently covered social signal, options skew, short-interest or employee dataset was supplied; zeros denote unavailable evidence rather than neutral readings. The August director sale and June chief accounting officer sale are monitoring items, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-11] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-17] With no reliable post-print analyst revision set or attributable recent market-reaction evidence, and with deterministic uncertainty of 0.881 versus evidence quality of 0.08, this remains a cautious monitoring view.
