Bull Case
The post-earnings setup is constructive: strong adjusted earnings, higher FY2026 guidance, improved net spread, meaningful asset-sale gains and continued repurchases support upside toward the packet's $179.30 median analyst target. However, the target count is unavailable and the evidence is not a fresh post-print consensus update.
Bear Case
Reported earnings benefited materially from asset sales and other adjustments, while Q2 capex was $1.9 billion and adjusted debt/equity remained 2.05x. Airline lessee credit, interest rates, funding access, aircraft values, geopolitical developments and execution remain material downside risks. Multiple officer Form 4 sales are a secondary caution signal, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-17]
