B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ZVRA
Zevra TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
U.S. MIPLYFFA revenue growth, stable market access, a debt-free balance sheet, and substantial cash provide operating support while EMA re-examination and VEDS development preserve upside optionality.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
A reported Form 4 open-market sale by the chief legal and compliance officer is a secondary sentiment signal, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-23]
Momentum
63
Value
67
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-07-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $25.00
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +31.9
Value67 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A reported Form 4 open-market sale by the chief legal and compliance officer is a secondary sentiment signal, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-23]
- • Commercial performance is concentrated in MIPLYFFA, making enrollment, reimbursement, payer access, and persistence important.
- • The negative CHMP opinion removes or delays the EU expansion case for arimoclomol, while the re-examination outcome is uncertain.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-24
Negative EMA opinion on arimoclomol EU application
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+31.9
Δ21d
+43.3
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+14.5
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-8.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 63.3 / Value 66.8 / Sentiment 51.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$684.7M
Beta
0.99
Shares Out
59.38M
P/E (TTM)
14.1
P/S (TTM)
5.56
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
21.27
Rev YoY
+53.3%
EPS YoY
-90.0%
Gross Margin
+94.5%
Op Margin
+28.7%
Net Debt
-$127.81M
Current Ratio
5.17
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data