B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ZUMZ
ZumiezANasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 showed real sales acceleration, positive comparable sales, and better operating leverage, while Europe traction and capital returns provide a path to earnings recovery if back-to-school and holiday demand reaccelerate.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Inventory rose to $153.2 million while the business remains loss-making, so weak sell-through could force markdowns.
Momentum
19
Value
69
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-06-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.00
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +4.8
Value69 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory rose to $153.2 million while the business remains loss-making, so weak sell-through could force markdowns.
- • May sales slowed to flat and North America turned negative, so Q2 momentum looks fragile.
- • The quarter still posted a $0.82 loss per share, May sales flattened immediately after the quarter, and the Q2 guide looks soft enough to explain the sharp post-print selloff; no meaningful post-earnings analyst revision signal is visible in the packet.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-05
Q1 sales and comp growth were solid, but the guide stayed cautious and the stock was punished
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+12.1
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-20.7
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 18.5 / Value 68.5 / Sentiment 62.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$216.31M
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
15.33M
P/E (TTM)
52.9
P/S (TTM)
0.49
P/FCF (TTM)
11.76
Rev YoY
+4.9%
EPS YoY
+3.5%
Gross Margin
+36.1%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$38.71M
Current Ratio
1.95
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data