B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ZUMZ
ZumiezDNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 showed real sales acceleration, positive comparable sales, and better operating leverage, while Europe traction and capital returns provide a path to earnings recovery if back-to-school and holiday demand reaccelerate.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.
What can break
Inventory rose to $153.2 million while the business remains loss-making, so weak sell-through could force markdowns.
Momentum
18
Value
65
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-06-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.00
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -0.5
Value65 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +6.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory rose to $153.2 million while the business remains loss-making, so weak sell-through could force markdowns.
- • May sales slowed to flat and North America turned negative, so Q2 momentum looks fragile.
- • The quarter still posted a $0.82 loss per share, May sales flattened immediately after the quarter, and the Q2 guide looks soft enough to explain the sharp post-print selloff; no meaningful post-earnings analyst revision signal is visible in the packet.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-05
Q1 sales and comp growth were solid, but the guide stayed cautious and the stock was punished
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-2.9
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
+4.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 18.3 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 49.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$304.04M
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
16.87M
P/E (TTM)
52.9
P/S (TTM)
0.49
P/FCF (TTM)
11.76
Rev YoY
+4.9%
EPS YoY
+3.5%
Gross Margin
+36.1%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$38.71M
Current Ratio
1.95
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data