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YALA

Yalla GroupA
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Gaming growth and successful commercialization could offset weaker chatting demand, while repurchases may support per-share value. Q2 game-services revenue rose 11.6% year over year.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Q2 paying users declined year over year despite higher monthly active users; the company attributed the revenue decline partly to regional geopolitical effects. [#IR-2026-08-17-Q2] Company Q2 results
Momentum
58
Value
72
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.90 · Bull $7.10 · Bear $4.40Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.28
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d +8.2
Value72 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Q2 paying users declined year over year despite higher monthly active users; the company attributed the revenue decline partly to regional geopolitical effects. [#IR-2026-08-17-Q2] Company Q2 results
  • • Q2 selling and marketing expense rose 106% year over year to $17.8 million, while operating income fell to $19.4 million from $30.6 million. [#IR-2026-08-17-Q2] Company Q2 results
  • • Q2 total revenue, paying users, and operating income declined year over year while selling and marketing expense more than doubled.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Q3 revenue and paying-user test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
58
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+14.3
Value
72
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+20.8
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
-6.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 58.4 / Value 71.7 / Sentiment 56.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$858.11M
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
128.23M
P/E (TTM)
8.8
P/S (TTM)
3.24
P/FCF (TTM)
6.57
Rev YoY
-2.3%
EPS YoY
-10.8%
Gross Margin
+67.8%
Op Margin
+30.8%
Net Debt
-$753.18M
Current Ratio
10.30
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data