RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

XPO

XPOD
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful execution of network optimization, meaningful margin recovery and one-off strategic transactions that unlock value, supporting upside toward the analyst high near $250 [#SERP-1].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.
What can break
Execution risk on margin-recovery initiatives
Momentum
38
Value
48
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $178.00 · Bull $250.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $236.45
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -9.9
Value48 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +2.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk on margin-recovery initiatives
  • • Potential dilutive M&A or asset-sale outcomes
  • • Bear case assumes weaker freight demand, margin pressure, and slower realization of cost saves leading to material multiple compression and downside toward the analyst low range (approximately $90–$95) [#SERP-2].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-09

Quarterly earnings and guidance update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.9
Δ21d
+4.6
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+9.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 37.9 / Value 47.6 / Sentiment 55.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$178.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.7B
Beta
2.06
Shares Out
117.09M
P/E (TTM)
52.3
P/S (TTM)
2.11
P/FCF (TTM)
73.44
Rev YoY
+13.1%
EPS YoY
+54.1%
Gross Margin
+12.8%
Op Margin
+9.8%
Net Debt
$3.78B
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data