RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

XPO

XPOD
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful execution of network optimization, meaningful margin recovery and one-off strategic transactions that unlock value, supporting upside toward the analyst high near $250 [#SERP-1].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Execution risk on margin-recovery initiatives
Momentum
64
Value
48
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $178.00 · Bull $250.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $228.67
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +13.0
Value48 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment49 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk on margin-recovery initiatives
  • • Potential dilutive M&A or asset-sale outcomes
  • • Bear case assumes weaker freight demand, margin pressure, and slower realization of cost saves leading to material multiple compression and downside toward the analyst low range (approximately $90–$95) [#SERP-2].

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Quarterly earnings and guidance update

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
64
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+13.0
Δ21d
+28.7
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-6.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 64.0 / Value 48.2 / Sentiment 48.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$178.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$21.35B
Beta
2.06
Shares Out
117.09M
P/E (TTM)
52.3
P/S (TTM)
2.11
P/FCF (TTM)
73.44
Rev YoY
+13.1%
EPS YoY
+54.1%
Gross Margin
+12.8%
Op Margin
+9.8%
Net Debt
$3.78B
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data