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XPEV

XPengB
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Gross margin above 20%, higher overseas mix, new-model launches, and the separately financed robotics business could support a re-rating if Q3 execution and deliveries improve. Citi retained a Buy rating despite reducing its target to $21.40 from $22.50.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
Cash position declined to RMB40.48 billion from RMB42.09 billion at the end of Q1.
Momentum
11
Value
36
Sentiment
92
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $13.00 · Bull $17.00 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-08-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $18.12
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -1.1
Value36 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment92 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-11.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cash position declined to RMB40.48 billion from RMB42.09 billion at the end of Q1.
  • • New-model ramp timing, capacity, supply-chain execution, and competitive pricing in China's EV market remain material risks.
  • • The Q3 outlook was below expectations, vehicle margin declined year over year to 12.1%, and losses remain substantial while R&D and selling expenses rise.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-24

Q2 results improved gross margin but missed expectations

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
+3.0
Value
36
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
92
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
-7.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 11.1 / Value 36.2 / Sentiment 91.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.37B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
782.24M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-87.3
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-27.38
Rev YoY
-13.4%
EPS YoY
+180.6%
Gross Margin
+19.9%
Op Margin
-6.9%
Net Debt
-$653.26M
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data