B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
XPEV
XPengDNYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Quarterly deliveries meet guidance, newer models support vehicle-margin recovery, and technical-services milestones recur. XPeng's Q2 release reported RMB2.70 billion of services and other revenue, up 93.9% year over year.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.3.
What can break
Q3 deliveries or revenue may miss company guidance. [#PR-2026-08-24] XPeng Q2 results
Momentum
22
Value
36
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.80
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d +0.9
Value36 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q3 deliveries or revenue may miss company guidance. [#PR-2026-08-24] XPeng Q2 results
- • R&D expense rose 32.1% year over year, and June 30 cash position was below March 31; physical-AI commercialization remains unproven as a near-term profit driver. [#PR-2026-08-24] XPeng Q2 results
- • Q2 vehicle deliveries were nearly flat year over year, vehicle margin declined, and the RMB1.34 billion net loss exceeded the year-earlier loss.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-28
Third-quarter delivery guidance test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+12.1
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
69
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-10.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 22.2 / Value 35.8 / Sentiment 69.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$8.72B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
783.75M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-66.8
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-20.96
Rev YoY
-13.4%
EPS YoY
+180.6%
Gross Margin
+19.9%
Op Margin
-6.9%
Net Debt
-$653.26M
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data