B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
XNCR
XencorFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source updates support multiple dated pipeline milestones, and management maintained year-end cash guidance and runway into mid-2028 despite the royalty dispute. If XmAb819 data or autoimmune milestones de-risk the pipeline, the current price could be too discounting for a company with several shots on goal.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Alexion told Xencor it does not owe additional U.S. Ultomiris royalties and does not intend to make future U.S. payments, creating a live royalty-dispute overhang.
Momentum
98
Value
41
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.08
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d +0.0
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Alexion told Xencor it does not owe additional U.S. Ultomiris royalties and does not intend to make future U.S. payments, creating a live royalty-dispute overhang.
- • Core upside is still tied to clinical execution and future readouts across XmAb819, XmAb412, XmAb942, plamotamab, and XmAb657; delays or weak data could pressure the stock.
- • The earnings follow-up still reads as a monitoring story: checked secondary sources indicated the quarter missed expectations, the revenue base is volatile and royalty-linked, and the Alexion/Ultomiris disagreement adds uncertainty on a previously highlighted royalty opportunity.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Post-Q1 digestion of royalty reset and runway
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 98.2 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.72B
Beta
0.99
Shares Out
74.35M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-18.7
P/S (TTM)
6.09
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-8.34
Rev YoY
+17.5%
EPS YoY
-31.0%
Gross Margin
+90.3%
Op Margin
-205.8%
Net Debt
-$359.99M
Current Ratio
6.39
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data