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WTM

White Mountains Insurance GroupB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
WTM trades below reported June 30 book value per share, while Q2 operating performance, capital returns, and acquisition capacity support potential book-value compounding.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Ark has ongoing exposure to the war in Iran and reported related Q2 losses; additional losses remain possible. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
66
Value
64
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2,290.00 · Bull $2,600.00 · Bear $1,850.00Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d -
Value64 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Ark has ongoing exposure to the war in Iran and reported related Q2 losses; additional losses remain possible. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Investment gains, including MediaAlpha's 35% quarterly share-price increase, may reverse and create mark-to-market volatility. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • The thesis remains exposed to catastrophe and geopolitical losses at Ark, investment mark-to-market volatility including MediaAlpha, and uncertain returns from future capital deployment.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 book-value growth and strong operating results

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
66
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 66.3 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 71.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2,600.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$2,290.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$1,850.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.04B
Beta
0.36
Shares Out
2.39M
P/E (TTM)
38.0
P/S (TTM)
2.09
P/FCF (TTM)
9.32
Rev YoY
+23.7%
EPS YoY
+68.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+24.2%
Net Debt
$734.7M
Current Ratio
1.15
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data