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WLFC

Willis Lease FinanceB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Larger managed assets and operating fund partnerships could support higher recurring lease earnings. Q2 lease rent rose 6.7% and adjusted EBITDA rose 4.0% year over year [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
Equipment-sale gains can fluctuate with transaction volume [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Momentum
5
Value
56
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $54.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-10-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $75.50
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d -1.5
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -4.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Equipment-sale gains can fluctuate with transaction volume [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
  • • Recurring lease and maintenance revenue may lag growth in assets under management [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
  • • Combined core lease rent and maintenance reserve revenue grew just 0.5%, while equipment-sale gains contributed $32.0 million in Q2.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Return on new preferred capital

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-18.9
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-7.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 5.2 / Value 56.0 / Sentiment 65.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$824.41M
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
21.14M
P/E (TTM)
8.5
P/S (TTM)
1.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.57
Rev YoY
-3.5%
EPS YoY
-53.6%
Gross Margin
+66.8%
Op Margin
+31.3%
Net Debt
$2.17B
Current Ratio
1.90
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data