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WLFC

Willis Lease FinanceC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
WLFC is showing strong operating momentum, with Q2 operating income up 20.2%, lease-rent revenue up 6.7%, and AUM reaching $4.4 billion. Continued asset-management expansion and demand for aviation services could support earnings growth.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Execution risk remains around integrating acquired properties and expanding spare-parts, maintenance, repair, overhaul, preservation, and storage operations [#8-K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
14
Value
56
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $60.00 · Bull $71.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-08-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $75.50
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +2.0
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk remains around integrating acquired properties and expanding spare-parts, maintenance, repair, overhaul, preservation, and storage operations [#8-K-2026-08-06].
  • • Geopolitical disruption may reduce aircraft and engine transaction activity and maintenance-reserve revenue [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-11].
  • • Core lease-rent and maintenance-reserve revenue increased only 0.5% in Q2, while the quarter included a $32.0 million gain on equipment sales.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-29

Recent executive open-market selling

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-2.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 14.0 / Value 55.7 / Sentiment 67.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$71.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.24B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
21.14M
P/E (TTM)
8.5
P/S (TTM)
1.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.35
Rev YoY
-3.5%
EPS YoY
-53.6%
Gross Margin
+66.8%
Op Margin
+31.3%
Net Debt
$2.17B
Current Ratio
1.90
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data