B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
WDC
Western DigitalDNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary filings support a strong operating quarter: revenue grew 45% year over year, gross margin moved above 50%, free cash flow was $978M, and Q4 guidance implies continued growth and margin strength [#8-K-2026-04-30]. The 10-Q also shows strong cloud demand, better pricing, and much lower debt [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Changes in U.S. trade policy, tariffs, or trade restrictions could still affect demand or costs; the 10-Q says impacts were not material through Q3 FY26 but the company is actively monitoring them [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Momentum
47
Value
50
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
12 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $390.00 · Bull $500.00 · Bear $310.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $684.23
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +18.0
Value50 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment40 · Δ7d -1.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Changes in U.S. trade policy, tariffs, or trade restrictions could still affect demand or costs; the 10-Q says impacts were not material through Q3 FY26 but the company is actively monitoring them [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
- • Cloud represented 89% of revenue in the reported quarter, increasing customer and end-market concentration risk if hyperscaler or enterprise demand normalizes [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
- • The setup looks increasingly expectation-sensitive.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Q4 FY26 guide sets a high bar for the next print
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.0
Δ21d
+16.8
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
40
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
+6.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 46.6 / Value 50.2 / Sentiment 40.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$390.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$310.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$193.25B
Beta
1.79
Shares Out
360.54M
P/E (TTM)
25.1
P/S (TTM)
5.35
P/FCF (TTM)
32.57
Rev YoY
+43.8%
EPS YoY
+980.7%
Gross Margin
+48.8%
Op Margin
+35.6%
Net Debt
-$388M
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data