B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$425.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
WAT
WatersCNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 already showed the combined company can beat on both core Waters demand and the newly acquired BD assets: organic constant-currency growth was 11%, the acquired businesses delivered $520 million of owned-period revenue versus guidance that was $40 million lower, and management raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance while pointing to early revenue-synergy traction [#SEC-8K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
China demand, procurement restrictions, tariff uncertainty, and local competition remain explicit risks in company filings [#10-K-2026-02-23][#SEC-10Q-2026-05-12].
Momentum
53
Value
60
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $395.00 · Bull $425.00 · Bear $320.00Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $446.78
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -2.7
Value60 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +6.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China demand, procurement restrictions, tariff uncertainty, and local competition remain explicit risks in company filings [#10-K-2026-02-23][#SEC-10Q-2026-05-12].
- • Higher leverage and acquisition-accounting drag: total debt was about $5.215 billion and goodwill about $9.317 billion as of April 4, 2026, increasing downside if growth slows [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-12].
- • The bear case is that this remains an execution-monitoring story, not a clean rerating: Q2 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.95-$3.05 implies only flat to 3.4% year-over-year growth, GAAP profitability is still heavily burdened by acquisition accounting, and the 10-Q shows materially higher goodwill and debt after the deal, leaving less room for integration slippage [#SEC-8K-2026-05-05][#SEC-10Q-2026-05-12].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Q1 beat-and-raise reset the FY26 bar higher
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-26.8
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+1.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 53.5 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 58.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$395.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$320.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$40.06B
Beta
1.18
Shares Out
98.25M
P/E (TTM)
36.3
P/S (TTM)
7.57
P/FCF (TTM)
39.04
Rev YoY
+91.5%
EPS YoY
-143.1%
Gross Margin
+50.2%
Op Margin
+19.7%
Net Debt
$903.25M
Current Ratio
1.79
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data