B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VTR
VentasDNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest near-term bull read is a healthcare REIT beat-and-raise: SHOP occupancy and same-store NOI were strong, leverage improved to 5.0x, liquidity was $5.5 billion, and management raised both full-year earnings guidance and investment volume expectations. Relative to direct healthcare REIT peers such as Welltower and Healthpeak, the evidence that matters most is whether Ventas can sustain SHOP growth and deploy senior housing capital without diluting returns.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
Execution risk rises with the larger senior housing investment plan; Ventas raised 2026 investment expectations to $3.0 billion and is relying in part on equity forwards and capital deployment discipline [#8-K-2026-04-27].
Momentum
63
Value
49
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $88.00 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $76.00Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $102.24
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -6.0
Value49 · Δ7d -
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +0.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk rises with the larger senior housing investment plan; Ventas raised 2026 investment expectations to $3.0 billion and is relying in part on equity forwards and capital deployment discipline [#8-K-2026-04-27].
- • Higher interest-rate expectations are already a partial offset to raised 2026 guidance, which can pressure REIT valuation multiples and funding economics [#8-K-2026-04-27].
- • The cautious read is that much of the thesis still depends on continued SHOP outperformance and successful deployment of a larger senior housing pipeline.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-27
Q1 beat-and-raise resets near-term expectations
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-6.0
Δ21d
+4.6
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+3.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 63.1 / Value 48.6 / Sentiment 48.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$76.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$47.8B
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
512.95M
P/E (TTM)
144.4
P/S (TTM)
6.46
P/FCF (TTM)
248.38
Rev YoY
+21.7%
EPS YoY
-4.6%
Gross Margin
+18.4%
Op Margin
+14.8%
Net Debt
$12.5B
Current Ratio
0.71
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data